Italy's problem is NOT populism. (With some forecasting as an added bonus:-)
1. Italy’s chief political problem is its failure since 1994 to solidify a working party system.
2. For a time, it seemed that the post-1994 system tended towards a two-party format with Berlusconi’s parties (first Forza Italia, then the PdL) on the center-right and the Democratic Party on the center-left. It didn’t work.
3. Both parties failed to consolidate. FI/PdL because of their leader’s follies and eventual political downfall, the Democratic Party because of its own leader’s (Renzi) inability to implement much-needed reforms.
4. In the vacuum thus created, new parties and movements emerged. Most important of them was the M5S – a political experiment in new tactics, styles, rhetoric and communication methods. Neither on the left nor on the right, M5S remains a mercurial political force.
5. The 2018 elections were a tipping point. Renzi took a beating as Berlusconi became a lame duck. There emerged two new leaders: Di Maio and Salvini. Both are university dropouts who, somehow reminiscent of Greece’s Tsipras, pursued inside-party careers.
6. M5S and the League are currently undergoing enormous transformations. M5S is trying to metamorphose from anti-establishment movement to established party. The League is trying to transform from a regionalist party with appeal mostly in the north into a national party.
7. Forecast #1: Neither the M5S nor the League are likely to win the absolute majority of votes in forthcoming elections. Instead, the party system will remain in a flux and politics in deadlock.
8. Forecast #2: M5S has no real staying power for it lacks what it takes for a party to become established. It is an experiment that will come to nothing.
9. Forecast #3: The League may turn successfully into a *nativist* party but, given Italy’s leftist traditions and socially convivial mentality, which help maintain a migration-accommodating culture, will not grow significantly.
10. Forecast #4: Italy’s political flux will not stop unless a new leader emerges to jump-start politics. Do you need proof? Consider what is common is such different leaders as Mussolini, De Gasperi, Andreotti, Berlusconi.
11. Oh, did I mention “populism”? Not really. Current Italian politics present such a richness and complexity that you do it (and yourself) a disservice by reducing it all to a word that is hardly understood or made any practical sense of.
