Thread by @AlirezaNader

Assessment of #Iran

1. Several provinces and cities are likely to run out of water this summer. A few cities are already experiencing lack of water. This is likely to lead to greater unrest.

2. The economy continues its decline with major capital flight reported.

Additional sanctions are likely to hasten the economy’s death spiral, leading to major unrest.

3. Overall the public mood in #Iran can be described as explosive. Contrary to some analyses, #iranians have not rallied around the flag in response to Trump’s policies.

4. The movement to overthrow the regime is growing. There is no one specific party or group that leads it, but younger Iranians seem to be a big part of it. Lack of centralized leadership has pros & cons but it prevents regime from crushing opposition easily.

5. The regime’s position in the ME is also under pressure as its bases are attacked in Syria and its influence challenged in Iraq. Internal unrest will put further pressure on the regime’s regional position.

6. What happens next is impossible to predict. But Iran is going

Through one of the most turbulent times in its modern history. Chaos and violence on a massive scale are very possible.

7. This is the most leverage the US has had against the regime in the last 39 years. But DC shouldn’t think the game is over. The regime has proven itself

Capable of getting out of crises again & again.

8. US financial pressure against the regime has proven to be very effective. But other areas are lagging, especially in the realm of information and opposition support.

9. Despite new initiatives, VOA Persian is likely to be

Ineffective unless major management & programming changes are made.

10. And the US is disengaged from the #Iranian opposition. It seems like the US can’t make up its mind either. It pursues regime change policies while stating that it doesn’t want regime change.

DC has to be all in if it wants positive changes in #Iran.

11. Ultimately the situation in #Iran is tragic & depressing. Iranians are under severe pressure. But Iranians have also proven capable of surviving many calamities. They’ll survive the Islamic Republic as well.

But they have to make the right decisions. And DC has to make the right decisions as well, otherwise the future of US-Iran relations and America’s position in the Middle East could become even bleaker.