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SBM Intelligence @sbmintelligence
, 24 tweets, 15 min read Read on Twitter
Yesterday, a rare joint session of both houses of @nassnigeria met and issued resolutions that has set it on a collision course with @AsoRock, and holds important political and economic consequences for #Nigeria as it stares down the barrel of #election2019.
The tension between the 2 most important arms of the FG, both controlled by @OfficialAPCNg, has endured through the tenure of @MBuhari's administration and is consequential for the party, for the wider political state of the country and in driving economic policy.
Federal lawmakers, in passing a vote of confidence in the principal officers of @NGRSenate and @HouseNGR, condemned the “systematic harassment and humiliation by @AsoRock of perceived political opponents, people with contrary opinions including legislators and the judiciary,”
complained of the current “reign of fear and intimidation” in the country’s politics, urged @NGRPresident to “take immediate steps to contain the growing level of unemployment and poverty,” called for “competitive and inclusive” #elections2019,
and perhaps most important, warned that @nassnigeria will “not hesitate to evoke its constitutional powers if nothing is done to address the above resolutions”.

The immediate motivation was a move by @policeNG to invite @BukolaSaraki, for questioning over robbery allegations.
The relationship between @policeNG and @nassnigeria has descended to new lows, with the IGP, Ibrahim Idris, refusing to appear before lawmakers on a number of occasions over the course of the year.
The legislators communicated their “vote of no confidence on Idris who does nothing other than preside over the killing of innocent Nigerians.”

@BukolaSaraki is far from the only federal legislator within @policeng's radar.
was arrested and prevented from leaving the country in May on alleged corruption charges which he and his colleagues see as politically motivated.

@ShehuSani was also invited by @policeNG over being allegedly implicated in a murder case in April this year.
has been leading a pack of @OfficialAPCNg politicians who first bandied together as part of a breakaway faction of @OfficialPDPNig – and have variously alleged marginalisation and a lack of inclusiveness within the APC since they joined.
His candidacy for @SPNigeria was not supported by @MBuhari and a large part of the APC establishment, but was ultimately successful in part because he secured the support of the significant PDP Senate caucus which saw a reason inflict a first political setback on @NGRPresident.
remains a significant political force and amid growing discontent with @OfficialAPCNg, his next actions will be a useful barometer for determining whether the ruling party heads into #election2019 from a position of strength or weakness stemming from disunity.
It is not far-fetched to envisage a mass exodus of influential politicians away from @OfficialAPCNg or backroom deals with powerful APC and @OfficialPDPNig state governors in states that are not favourably disposed to @MBuhari.
Such deals could harm @MBuhari's reelection chances.

As a former state governor, @BukolaSaraki still maintains strong ties with most current state governors as well as many former state governors, some of whom are now his colleagues in @NGRSenate.
Politically, we are of the opinion that there will be no impeachment of @MBuhari.

The number of those against him in @nassnigeria is simply not large enough to put together the majority required for such a move.
However, on economic policy, as they have shown in the recent past, @nassnigeria can place blocks in the plans of @AsoRock.

In an election season, governance, already on the back burner, will be stymied by these new developments.
The status of #budget2018 remains unclear despite @nassnigeria passing the Appropriation Bill amid claims from @AsoRock that @MBuhari is still studying the bill.

Don't expect a quick response from @nassnigeria if @NGRPresident makes significant changes to what he received.
will have reduced motivation to pass important reforms in critical sectors like oil and gas, power and infrastructure, which might deliver crucial wins for the administration, wins which it could sell to the Nigerian electorate as the elections draw closer.
A united party would have been hard pressed to deal with substantial policy issues with #election2019 less than a year away, but with the ongoing impasse, real governance would be next to impossible, making doing business in #Nigeria less attractive due to political risk.
This is not to say that @BukolaSaraki’s support in @NGRSenate is unanimous.

He has resorted to the questionable measure of suspending dissenting members, most recently being the suspension of @OvieOmoAgege which culminated in the fiasco of thugs making away with the mace.
and @AsoRock in prioritising politicking over crucial issues is a recurring theme.

When Nigerians became vocal about alleged incidences of impunity and extra-judicial killings orchestrated by a special unit of @policeNG in #EndSARS, there was little response.
Structurally, the @MBuhari administration has been hampered by the infighting and the functional breakdown in coordination between its constituent arms, the most prominent sign yet of the wider fracturing of #Nigeria's politics.
As questions of restructuring, devolution, respect for rights, the increasing breakdown of law, order and security and wider unease with the performance of the economy abound, more Nigerians will begin to vocally express their discontent with the ruling elite,
which notwithstanding their affiliations, they will begin to hold responsible for their present economic malaise – a recipe for increased uncertainty on a number of fronts as they contemplate their choices at #election2019.
Read the complete analysis here -…
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