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SBM Intelligence @sbmintelligence
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The brooding festive mood did little to stifle the fact that electoral reform was stumped, our worst fears about the north-east are real, a forex ban list got longer and regulatory immaturity persists.
Honourable Mohammed's remarks about #BokoHaram underscore the gulf between official propaganda regarding the north-east and the realities on the ground.
The region has been described previously by @TheEconomist as "a failed state within a failed state" and boasts some of the worst socio-economic and developmental indices in #Nigeria.
Its low ranking on HDI predated the insurgency, and nearly 10 years of conflict have compounded the situation with a humanitarian and developmental crisis from which the region will require decades to recover.
In the immediate term, the lawmaker's remarks raise concerns about the veracity of official claims of progress in the north-east.
If these progress reports amount to no more than official spin, questions must be raised regarding the true situation in the region, and how much human suffering has been obscured by propaganda.
Without a true picture of the situation, the effectiveness of @AsoRock's responses and policies addressing the region can only be doubted.

Understating the scale of the emergency in #Nigeria's north-east may earn propaganda points but ultimately ill-serves the region's people.
For the beleaguered denizens of the north-east, this amounts to double jeopardy; having been first victimised by a deadly #BokoHaram insurgency, it seems that even the depth of their suffering has been airbrushed by spin doctors eager to declare a victory that isn't.
On @MBuhari's refusal to sign the amended #ElectoralBill, he does have a valid point from a legal standpoint.

Operatively, the law in force, and on which @inecnigeria announced the timetables and modalities for #NigeriaDecides2019, is the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended).
Combined with #Nigeria’s litigation-fuelled brand of politics, it is eminently plausible that a losing candidate in #NigeriaDecides2019 could apply to the courts to have a vote invalidated on this ground and be on a reasonable legal footing.
The above notwithstanding, @AsoRock and @nassnigeria have paid lip service to electoral reform.

There was ample time to get a good bill passed when reform was first mooted in the middle of last year.
A @NGRSenate Bill with substantially the same provisions as one which passed in October 2018 emerged in February.

On @AsoRock's side, @MBuhari offered unsatisfactory explanations the 1st 3 times a workable bill sat on his table only to wave the ‘insufficient time’ card now.
As with many things that have occurred during @MBuhari's administration, the greater good has fallen victim to narrow political considerations.
The impact of the 41 item restriction by @cenbank has been mixed thus far.

On the one hand, it has aided the development of industries such as cement and salt, though the impact has yet to be felt in final consumer prices.
On the other hand, however, it has also fuelled widespread smuggling (e.g. rice) which has led to the loss of import tariff revenues and asphyxiated the economy.
The only industries that seem to have thrived under the ban are those in which conglomerates like @DangoteGroup, @BUAgroup, and Ibeto play, and with Dangote’s petrochemical plant likely to come on stream in 2019, it does appear this initiative by @cenbank was timed accordingly.
On December 7, @FAAN_Official had released a NOTAM stating that fire fighting and rescue services had been withdrawn from @MMA2Bicourtney.
While no reason was given in the NOTAM, it can only be assumed that this action was in connection with the reported ₦1.9 billion the agency claims it is owed by @MMA2Bicourtney.
By the following day the affected airport owners had reached out to the agency and @FAAN_Official decided to suspend its proposed action.
On its part, @MMA2Bicourtney released a statement noting that it had its own staff on ground to manage its operations and pointed to its ₦132 billion judgement credit against @AsoRock since March 2009.
It is important to note that this is not @FAAN_Official’s first enforcement action against its debtors.

In June 2017, the Enugu Airport’s manager disrupted the flight operations of @flyairpeace over a ₦7 million debt.
It was later found that @flyairpeace had already met its obligations and @FAAN_Official was forced to apologise.
While the large debt profiles within the aviation industry is an ongoing concern to all industry watchers, the willingness of @FAAN_Official to publicly shame and cause loses to operators is worrying for an industry susceptible to shocks and panics.
The inability of agencies to work with operators to amicably settle disputes shows a continued lack of maturity of the regulatory mechanisms within #Nigeria's aviation sector, which will only continue to stifle growth within the industry.

This is also true of other sectors.
NB: SBM Intelligence's annual projections for the next year will be published at noon West Africa Time.

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