1/Instead of threading today's @bopinion post (bloomberg.com/view/articles/…), I thought I'd write a meta-thread about optimism vs. pessimism in pushing for social change.
2/There are basically two schools of thought about what kind of attitude spurs people to work or sacrifice for change.
The first basically holds that we should play up the problem, to increase urgency and a sense of crisis.
The first basically holds that we should play up the problem, to increase urgency and a sense of crisis.
3/One common argument for pessimism is that if we allow ourselves to acknowledge progress or hope, it will provide ammunition to the opponents - to the people who don't want to do anything about the problem at all.
4/The second school of thought is basically that we should emphasize both A) progress that has been made already, and B) the feasibility of future gains.
(I guess you could split these into two types of "optimism", but for simplicity I'll keep them together for now.)
(I guess you could split these into two types of "optimism", but for simplicity I'll keep them together for now.)
5/The rationale for optimism is that people won't act to solve a problem unless they see it as a solvable problem.
If they see a problem as inevitable, or just a fact of life, they may opt for serenity, or even denial. Who spends all their effort for a hopeless cause?
If they see a problem as inevitable, or just a fact of life, they may opt for serenity, or even denial. Who spends all their effort for a hopeless cause?
6/Of course, when you discuss optimism vs. pessmism, someone always wants to be a "realist".
But this is a mirage. Most social problems are so complex that we don't really know how solvable they are.
In practice, both optimists and pessimists consider themselves "realists".
But this is a mirage. Most social problems are so complex that we don't really know how solvable they are.
In practice, both optimists and pessimists consider themselves "realists".
7/In fact, I don't thin there's a good universal answer to the "optimism vs. pessimism" question. It's probably situational.
On the climate issue, I prefer the optimistic, can-do attitude of @ramez to the more apocalyptic pronouncements of some other friends of mine.
On the climate issue, I prefer the optimistic, can-do attitude of @ramez to the more apocalyptic pronouncements of some other friends of mine.
8/But of course, it's important to remember that whether you're an optimist or a pessimist on an issue, you should never fudge the facts. Everything's open to interpretation, but with the facts on your side, you'll be the best optimist OR pessimist that you can be.
(end)
(end)
