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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Six months ago I wrote a post on MoviePass. The stock of the parent company HMNY was down ~15% today to ~25 cents (which translates to a market cap of ~$20m which is less than 50% of its June burn rate of $45 million). Normalizing this situation and others like it is a bad idea.
"The company has had an average monthly cash deficit since September of $25 million, and it swelled to $45 million this month." google.com/amp/s/deadline…
"Last week, MoviePass filed a preliminary proxy statement with the SEC, informing investors that it plans to potentially" google.com/amp/s/www.fool…
businessinsider.com/moviepass-has-…
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

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Six months ago, a dear friend was reaching the end of the line. Her only hope was an organ transplant, but she was too weak to get on the waiting list – let alone survive the 7-hour operation. We knew every day we had with her was a gift.
On a grey day in August, I took my mum up to North London to see her. Mum is a retired NHS nurse and spent most of her career in end-of-life care. She's seen it all. And she knew right away that our friend was in a bad way.
I sat in silence as Mum talked to her about care plans, hospice and respite care, and all the other morbid practicalities you hope you'll never have to discuss with someone you love. I knew things were bleak but this was the first time it'd all felt so real and irreversible.
Read 13 tweets
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Six months ago today, I became governor of New Jersey. Since then, we've worked hard to build a stronger, fairer state for all. We've:

✔️ Signed the nation's toughest equal pay law

✔️ Passed a millionaire’s tax

✔️ Assembled the most diverse cabinet in NJ history
✔️ Restored funding for Planned Parenthood and women’s health care

✔️ Expanded access to medical marijuana

✔️ Promoted ACA enrollment

✔️ Pledged $100 million to tackle the opioid crisis
✔️ Supported a fracking ban in the Delaware River Basin

✔️ Announced NJ will rejoin RGGI to combat climate change

✔️ Jumpstarted the development of offshore wind energy

✔️ Banned offshore drilling in state waters

✔️ Signed sweeping clean energy legislation
Read 10 tweets
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Six months ago I started teaching teenagers from disadvantaged backgrounds. In the end, it was them who taught me.

With students like them you see the whole spectrum of human problems in its rawest form.
It's because they know how to express themselves. Most of them, anyway. They don't sugarcoat, don't hide, they'll tell you to go fuck yourself if you ask them how they are.
And you have to remain calm and loving, otherwise they'll pick your energies up and throw it right back at you.

You really do have to learn what unconditional means.

And also, what authenticity means.
Read 8 tweets
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#Today's story to #EndFamilySeparation Four months ago, Dad and 4-month-old entered at the Texas/Mexico border and requested #asylum. Dad and child were immediately separated and the baby put in ORR custody. #FamiliesBelongTogether
Dad was detained in a #Texas detention center where @RAICESTEXAS consulted. Dad accepted a deportation to be quickly reunited w/ his infant child. However, the Dad was deported & NOT his child. The now 8-month-old baby has been in ORR custody for 4 months. #EndFamilySeparation
The Mom and Dad now have once weekly Skype calls with their 8-month-old baby. That's right, folks. They Skype with an infant. #EndFamilySeparation #FamiliesBelongTogether
Read 7 tweets
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Months ago, I wrote that we'd know we had reached a certain phase of the Trump-Russia probe when J.D. Gordon had been correctly identified as a key witness—given that he was in charge of the pro-Putin GOP platform change Trump ordered *months* before the RNC. And now here we are.
Last week, I posted this list of questions for Gordon on Twitter. Hopefully both Mueller and Congress will be asking (or did ask) these and more. I first threaded on Gordon in mid-April, as he's a key Russia-probe witness who has inexplicably flown under the radar from the start.
If you go back and look at J.D. Gordon's answers to even the most basic questions about his campaign activity, you get just as many I-can't-recalls and It-wasn't-mes and No-one-told-mes as you do with every other Trump aide. But he was Sessions' right-hand man on the NatSec team.
Read 8 tweets

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