Thread by @BMBernstein

It's not a coincidence that $100bn of shitcoins have emerged at the same time as $8tn in negative interest rate bonds, populism and a reality TV president

This may seem grandiose, but it's all a product of Central Bank credit and time preference manipulation

Crypto has been a magnet for the most shortsighted people. As CB's push people out on their risk curve and increase their time preference many have ended up here

"When moon" is a great representation of this. People can't even wait a damn week for a token's price to go up

Modern economic policy is focused on the here and now and ignores oppty cost and tradeoffs. There's free lunch in that world. “In the end we’re all dead” - Keynes.

But 2008 showed that wasn't the case

Yet, there's still an absolute abdication of any long term thinking today because Central banks responded with even more distortion.

Money and time are inextricably linked. Money’s purpose is to create a fungible, transferrable and storable representation of your time

Zero interest rates represent the removal of all oppty cost — free money, that bids up assets today instead of creating future wealth.

But, like with 2008, there will be a crisis that shows behind the curtain. That we can't remove all sense of oppty cost and still build a fruitful, wealth generating society.

Capitalism's success is predicated on long term capital accumulation

Paradoxically, BTC is the antithesis of this. BTC is forcefully going to extend time preference, back to its productive state.

Bitcoin is an attempt to give us money as irreversible as time.

The shitcoinery will last so long as $8tn of negative interest rate bonds and artificial central bank liquidity still does tool.

Shitcoins will not be uncorrelated. They will collapse with the next crisis as people are finally confronted with the dangers of artificially high time preference.