Hey, everyone. I’m reading this book by Arthur C. Clarke about predicting the future ("Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry Into the Limits of the Possible," Harper & Row, 1973). I like it. I’m going to share some notes with you./0 
I have been a fan of Arthur C. Clarke for a long-time. His collaboration with Stanley Kubrick yielded one of my favorite movies of all-time ("2001: A Space Odyssey") and his book "Childhood's End" is one of my favorite reads of all-time. /1
I finally read "Profiles of the Future" because I was trying to understand more of the context and thinking behind Clarke's Three Laws: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clarke%27… /2
Clarke's First Law: When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong./3
Clarke's Second Law: The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture a little way past them into the impossible. /4
Clarke's Third Law: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
(It is actually this law that started me on this adventure of getting his book and reading it.) /5
(It is actually this law that started me on this adventure of getting his book and reading it.) /5
Clarke wrote these essays about the hazards of prophecy partly because of his frustrations with how badly the scientific community predicted the future. Here are some examples of bad predictions: /6
Bad predictions by esteemed scientists:
Planes: heavier-than-air flight would be impossible
Trains: traveling faster than 30 mph would cause people to suffocate
Rockets: space travel would be impossible
Lightbulbs: electric light would never work /7
Planes: heavier-than-air flight would be impossible
Trains: traveling faster than 30 mph would cause people to suffocate
Rockets: space travel would be impossible
Lightbulbs: electric light would never work /7
In response, and out of exasperation, Clarke pulled together his thoughts in the early 1960s. His book was updated a few times with subsequent editions.
Here are some of his comments that caught my eye./8
Here are some of his comments that caught my eye./8
On the hazards of prophecy: “It is impossible to predict the future, and all attempts to do so in any detail appear ludicrous within a very few years.” /9
On the growing role of science: “…science will dominate the future even more than it dominates the present.”
NOTE: those of dealing with clean energy and climate change might argue that science is not dominant, rather it might have taken a back seat. /10
NOTE: those of dealing with clean energy and climate change might argue that science is not dominant, rather it might have taken a back seat. /10
On the ability of scientists at predicting the future: "With few exceptions, scientists seem to make rather poor prophets." /11
On the importance of science fiction for predicting the future: “The facts of the future can hardly be imagined ab initio by those who are unfamiliar with the fantasies of the past.” /12
Math isn’t enough: “No equations, however impressive and complex, can arrive at the truth if the initial assumptions are incorrect.” /13
War’s accelerating effect on innovation: “Once [fission] was discovered, the harnessing of atomic energy was inevitable, though without the pressures of war it might well have taken the better part of a century.” (rather than just a few years b/c of the Manhattan Project) /14
How expertise can blind us: “…it is not the man who knows most about a subject, and is the acknowledged master of his field, who can give the most reliable pointers to its future. Too great a burden of knowledge can clog the wheels of imagination.” /15
On the definition of elderly: “In physics, mathematics, and astronautics it means over thirty; in the other disciplines, senile decay is sometimes postponed to the forties.” /16
On the value of older scientists: “…as every researcher just out of college knows, scientists over fifty are good for nothing but board meetings, and should at all costs be kept out of the laboratory.”
NOTE: I rate this comment TRUE /17
NOTE: I rate this comment TRUE /17
Roger Bacon in the 13th century predicted: “...the largest ships, w/only one man guiding them, will be carried w/ greater velocity than if they were full of sailors. Chariots may be constructed that will move with incredible rapidity w/o the help of animals.…” /18
On imagination: “A completely open mind would be an empty one.” /19
I have only read the first 2 chapters w/ 17 chapters remaining. I still have much to learn! /end
