Thread: Just back form 3 weeks in Europe. Takeaway -- The transatlantic partnership is in deep trouble.
2/Much of the attention has been on high-level interactions i.e. the G7 picture. But this ignores the corrosive force of the US administration on the day-to-day operational level.
3/European counterparts across issue areas -- counter-terrorism/non-proliferation/environment/anti-trust -- dont know what the US policy position is. They meet one day with one surrogate, who makes X claims, and then with another surrogate the next day, who makes Y claims.
4/The President, then, blows up both with a tweet. This undermines surrogate credibility. But also makes compromise/diplomacy impossible because European counterparts are not receiving a credible signal as to US policy demands.
5/At the same time, US expertise and information credibility has been eroded. This started with the Iraq War claims but has been supercharged by Trump information distortion.
6/In many sensitive domains, US intelligence is seen in Europe as the gold standard. That said, the US often tells European partners to 'trust us' on the details.
7/Trump pushes fake stories about criminality in Germany, EU history, NATO commitments. These all raise doubts in European partners that they should trust information coming from the US.
8/Add to this the tone and strategy. Europe bristled at US unilateralism under Bush. But at least they could see the goals (if not the means) as largely in line with European values.
9/Now the 'Cowboys' have been unleashed to seek individual personal gain (Ivanka brand), some corporate agenda or even worse the mercurial decisions of the President.
10/It is at this point in the conversation that someone flags 'kids in cages' and 'handshakes with Rogue leaders'.
11/In short, Europeans face an antagonistic, unilateralist US, who is not pursuing common goals. At the same time, they are increasingly skeptical of information coming from the US or the US policy objective.
12/So while we focus on the high level pictures and readouts from the NATO summit, dont forget that the US administration is putting something much bigger at risk.
13/It is the day-to-day interactions by mid-level bureaucrats that keep our borders safe, terrorism under control, global financial system working and goods moving. This requires constant interaction, trust and credible information exchange.
14/For many Europeans, they see US behavior and the current paralysis in the transatlantic relationship as only benefitting Russia and China.
15/It also eats away at the taken-for-granted blind commitment to support US power. The stories of GIs liberating cities from NAZIs and keeping the Russians out are being replaced with Neo-Nazi marches and Trump-Putin meetings.
16/ Decoupling/counterbalancing, then, is the next logical conclusion. For many I spoke with, they saw these developments as deeply sad. They didnt want to believe this could be happening.
17/Ultimately, it was a jarring visit. In many ways a call to arms for US officials and others to recommit to the transatlantic partnership. #youdontknowwhatyouvegottilitsgone.
