1/Hey, everybody! The other day, I tweeted a cranky tweet about all the bad stuff that's happened to America this century:
But @primalpoly had a more positive outlook:
Well, which is it? How has America fared this century so far?
But @primalpoly had a more positive outlook:
Well, which is it? How has America fared this century so far?
2/I decided to look at a bunch of trends to get an overall picture of how America has done since 2000. I focused on three areas;
1) Economics
2) Americans' physical health and welfare
3) The social health of America
Here's what I came up with: bloomberg.com/view/articles/…
1) Economics
2) Americans' physical health and welfare
3) The social health of America
Here's what I came up with: bloomberg.com/view/articles/…
3/In economic terms, the average (median) American is slightly richer than in 2000 - but only slightly.
We had years of slow growth followed by an enormous recession, from which we've just now finally recovered.
We had years of slow growth followed by an enormous recession, from which we've just now finally recovered.
4/But the trend of rising inequality that we saw in the late 20th century has, sadly, continued in the 21st.
Income inequality is growing a little more slowly, but wealth inequality is growing a little more quickly.
Income inequality is growing a little more slowly, but wealth inequality is growing a little more quickly.
5/Moreover, productivity growth has slowed, and economic mobility has fallen.
Slow productivity growth, low mobility, and rising inequality have made the U.S. economy look a lot more like a zero-sum game than in the 80s and 90s.
That's bad.
Slow productivity growth, low mobility, and rising inequality have made the U.S. economy look a lot more like a zero-sum game than in the 80s and 90s.
That's bad.
6/In terms of physical health, our record looks much better.
Life expectancy has increased by 2 years since 2000.
Life expectancy has increased by 2 years since 2000.
7/Infant mortality is down.
Black mortality rates are WAY WAY down.
Teen pregnancy is down.
Air pollution is down.
Carbon emissions are down.
There is much to celebrate here.
Black mortality rates are WAY WAY down.
Teen pregnancy is down.
Air pollution is down.
Carbon emissions are down.
There is much to celebrate here.
8/But there are also reasons to worry.
An opioid and opiate epidemic is sweeping the country.
An opioid and opiate epidemic is sweeping the country.
9/Overdoses are up.
Alcoholism is up.
Suicide is up.
For white people, mortality rates have actually risen slightly: brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…
Alcoholism is up.
Suicide is up.
For white people, mortality rates have actually risen slightly: brookings.edu/wp-content/upl…
10/How about the health of American society? Here, there a couple of positive trends.
Crime is down.
And incarceration is down too, especially of young people.
Crime is down.
And incarceration is down too, especially of young people.
11/And we made huge progress in gay rights, which seems like a very important improvement in American society.
12/But Americans are less happy and less trusting than they were in the 1990s.
These are bad signs.
These are bad signs.
13/And hate crimes are on the rise: washingtonpost.com/news/post-nati…
14/What about technology? Productivity growth has slowed substantially, but we have created new technologies to enrich our leisure hours - smartphones, social media, and the like. Meanwhile, product quality and variety have improved in ways not captured in the official numbers.
15/So what's the verdict overall?
The 21st century has seen continued gains for Americans. But those gains have slowed. And some trends are pointing in the wrong direction.
Neither hand-wringing pessimism NOR blithe sunny optimism is warranted.
The 21st century has seen continued gains for Americans. But those gains have slowed. And some trends are pointing in the wrong direction.
Neither hand-wringing pessimism NOR blithe sunny optimism is warranted.
16/Reasons for worry:
1) The trifecta of slowing productivity, falling mobility, and rising inequality threatens to turn our economy into a zero-sum game.
2) Falling trust and happiness indicate fraying social bonds between Americans.
These are our biggest challenges.
1) The trifecta of slowing productivity, falling mobility, and rising inequality threatens to turn our economy into a zero-sum game.
2) Falling trust and happiness indicate fraying social bonds between Americans.
These are our biggest challenges.
17/It would be wrong to ignore the severity of these challenges. A big effort, and some major changes, will be required if we're going to set things right.
Are we up to the task?
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Are we up to the task?
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Oh, and two other notes:
1) Though America's performance has been mixed, the WORLD as a whole has done amazingly well since 2000! Don't forget that.
2) The RISK of nuclear war has probably risen b/c more countries have nukes, but the SIZE of nuclear arsenals has fallen hugely.
1) Though America's performance has been mixed, the WORLD as a whole has done amazingly well since 2000! Don't forget that.
2) The RISK of nuclear war has probably risen b/c more countries have nukes, but the SIZE of nuclear arsenals has fallen hugely.
