Thread by @Mikel_Jollett

@NateSilver538 Well it's just a theory at this point. And requires skepticism.

BUT:

1. Why did the sudden switch by the Trump campaign to the upper midwest occur THE SAME WEEK as the data was stolen?

2. Why was the Trump campaign strategy of voter suppression EXACTLY THE SAME as Russia's?

@NateSilver538 Just look at the evidence:

The Trump campaign clearly had contact w Russia. The Russians clearly knew what strategy data suggested would be most effective.

Are you honestly suggesting the Trump campaign (behind by 4% on 9/1/16) turned down the data bc it would've been IMMORAL?

@NateSilver538 Again, skepticism is important.

BUT:

We know the Trump campaign was eager to cheat ("I love it"). We know Flynn, Manafort, Junior, Papadopolous, Trump himself and like 10 others ALL HAD TIES TO RUSSIA.

Using Russian data to drive campaign strategy seems pretty obvious to me.

@NateSilver538 There are 3 ways hacking could have affected outcomes:

1. Hacked voter verification software COULD have been used to remove voters from rolls.

2. Stolen data could've been used by Trump campaign to adjust macro-strategy

3. Stolen data WAS used to micro-target vulnerable votes.

@NateSilver538 The first is the one we know the least about (yesterday we found out about the 500,000 identities stolen by the Russian government and the hack of the voter verifications software).

The third has been widely confirmed by reporting.

Number 2 seems, uh, kinda likely.

@NateSilver538 One final question (tin-foil hat warning):

What if number 1 happened so they bought ads to cover their asses?

Meaning, what if the Russian hack of voter verification software allowed them to kick voters off rolls so they bought ads in those states so it wouldn't seem fishy?