Thread by @Usherwood

So the @ElectoralCommUK rpt on Vote Leave/BeLeave coordination in #EUref is now available: electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/journal…

Some thoughts:

1/

Rpt finds coordination did take place, resulted in substantial overspend by VL, and even more by BeLeave

2/

Also worth reading full rpt for discussion of VL's non-compliance w @ElectoralCommUK investigation

electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/… (p29 onwards)

3/

@ElectoralCommUK Notwithstanding any challenge to this that VL might launch, Q is whether this matters to legitimacy of #EUref outcome?

4/

@ElectoralCommUK First, rpt is v.specifically focused on coordination, so makes no pronouncements on effect of overspend

5/

@ElectoralCommUK At same time, purpose of spending limits is precisely to level the playing field, as money buys campaigning activity (in this case, online)

6/

@ElectoralCommUK That means no attempt to quantify scale of effect of overspend, which is functionally impossible

(which bit of money? what activity? who saw it? how did this affect their vote? etc)

7/

@ElectoralCommUK This rpt does not deal with issues likely, by themselves, to call into question the conduct of #euref

8/

@ElectoralCommUK That doesn't preclude the gvt or Parliament deciding to open an investigation or inquiry on the matter, taking into account the other elements of uncertainty that have been flagged up around #EUref

9/

@ElectoralCommUK At the same time, hard to see gvt wanting to reopen matters on the evidence produced so far, given both uncertain effects of infringements and huge politics of it all

10/

@ElectoralCommUK Maybe final point to take away is that @ElectoralCommUK remains rather limited in its powers to investigate and apply penalties.

Looking at my timeline, opinion is divided on whether that's good or bad

11/

@ElectoralCommUK In sum, certainly another tool for Remainers to use, but not a game-changer

/end