1) So I did some thinking. Obviously, this is a very dangerous thing for me to do. I did so much thinking, I'm making a thread, one that I'm not tagging the rest of the Conservative Twitter Intelligentsia on, though I did run the thought by a few to make sure I wasn't totally mad
2) I will go ahead and plug quodverum.com, coming soon-ish, because I'm a fame junkie like that.
3) And I'm bringing out the red ring of rage again. Because, you're going to feel rage after you're done with this thread.
See, my thinking involved me drilling down to the juicy nuggets of logic that are hidden behind all the bullshit and bluster.
See, my thinking involved me drilling down to the juicy nuggets of logic that are hidden behind all the bullshit and bluster.
4) See, in economics, there's a saying. "Economics is the art of explaining tomorrow WHY all the predictions you made yesterday went wrong today." Notice the emphasis on WHY.
WHY is possibly the most important question for figuring anything out.
WHY is possibly the most important question for figuring anything out.
5) I don't mean surface level 'why', like Democrats saying 'Hillary lost because Russia interfered!' Not, 'Russia interfered because Trump is their pawn!' But, WHY did Russia intervene in the election at all?
6) Now, let me lay out some baseline thoughts. First off, the Russians are, historically, a very, VERY paranoid people. Its well documented, and this is just one of many articles you can find when you try and look into Russian paranoia. theguardian.com/world/2016/oct…
7) It was Russian paranoia that Reagan used to defeat the Soviet Union, actually. He sped up the arms race and took advantage of the USSR's paranoia that they would be beat in the arms race to spend themselves into an economic meltdown.
8) So, we're clear on the Russians being paranoid? Good. Now imagine what a population that is prone to paranoia would do if they thought that they potentially may be invaded.
9) Further imagine what would happen if a likely presidential candidate for the largest country in the world had years of the media puffing her up into being a complete hawk when it came to war
10) Now, if you're a population of rather paranoid people, you might think, "OH FUCK! They're going to invade us if she wins!"
11) Hold up hold up hold up you're probably saying right now. Isn't Russia a nuclear power? Wouldn't invading them mean the end of the world?
12) What if I were to tell you... that they're not?
13) Let me lay out some basic numbers for you. The current US GDP is around $17.4 trillion; in 1983, it was about 7 trillion. multpl.com/us-gdp-inflati…
14) The USSR's GDP in 1983? About $3.7 trillion, HALF of what the US GDP was at the time. ivanstat.com/en/gdp/su.html
15) RUSSIA'S current GDP? Try $1.7 trillion or so. That's right. Russia's GDP is HALF of what it was in 1983. tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp
16) Yet, for some reason, the WaComPost wants you to be VERY AFRAID of Russia's missiles being able to beat our missile defense! washingtonpost.com/news/worldview…
17) So let's try and square this circle. At the most dangerous point in the cold war, the USSR GDP was HALF of what the US was at the time. Since then, Russia's GDP is down to half of what it was then, while ours has doubled. Effectively, the US gdp is 14x LARGER than Russia.
18) But, Hillary and the rest of the Democrats were calling for war with Russia. Why?
@LarrySchweikart throws forwards a convincing argument for why NOW, for a surface level why. Because they think a war will sink Trump's approval ratings.
@LarrySchweikart throws forwards a convincing argument for why NOW, for a surface level why. Because they think a war will sink Trump's approval ratings.
19) But WHY then, WHY was Hillary already being set up as a complete war hawk? Why were they screaming about the Russians before the election? WHY?
20) What is one of the major imports to the EU? washingtonpost.com/news/worldview…
21) The EU's goal is to become a self-sufficient trade bloc. The ONLY thing they didn't have in abundance was energy. Everything else they had enough of to be completely self sufficient. WHY be self sufficient?
22) Because they were hitting skyrocketing growth until the 2008 recession, and then its been stalled out. If they were to have an internal source of energy, they'd be virtually immune to economic shocks from the rest of the world, at least more resilient. tradingeconomics.com/european-union…
23) Where's the nearest source of energy? Russia. Pesky pesky Russia, who started a civil war in Ukraine to make sure they couldn't join the EU or NATO, so that neither group got any closer than necessary. Russia is paranoid as shit, remember?
24) Now, the next WHY. WHY would Hillary want a war with Russia for the EU's benefit? Why would she put an EU-friendly Russia that might join the EU and make NATO obsolete? (declining NATO funding with no repercussions? Germany and co didn't think it would be around much longer!)
25) Because guess what the US' biggest export to the EU is? Services. Intellectual property, banking, internet, etc.
26) And GUESS WHO HILLARY'S BIG CORPORATE BACKERS WERE?!?
Banks. Amazon. Google. Twitter. Fucking ALL the biggest companies in the service industries.
I think a deal was cut. If the US knocked out Russia and let the EU take their oil and become self-sufficient...
Banks. Amazon. Google. Twitter. Fucking ALL the biggest companies in the service industries.
I think a deal was cut. If the US knocked out Russia and let the EU take their oil and become self-sufficient...
27) The service industries of the US would have an absolute bonanza in the now self-sufficient and presumably skyrocketing GDP area of the EU. Big money for EVERYBODY.
28) But, let me turn back a moment here. This all presumes that we'd NOT end the world due to a war with Russia. I mean, that's still a threat, right? Surely a war with Russia wouldn't be a cakewalk, right?
29) Let me present you this fact. Our nuclear budget, which INCLUDES all of our delivery systems (subs, strategic bombers, icbms, etc): $20 billion per year or so. nti.org/analysis/artic…
30) Our total military budget? As of 2015, it was about $500 billion officially, and its gone up since then, not counting the unofficial secret stuff, which adds about $100 billion or so depending on who you ask.
Derp, sourcing: comptroller.defense.gov/Portals/45/doc…
31) RUSSIA'S military spending? Well, according to the World CIA Factbook, ehhhh about $65 billion or so, give or take.
Damnit, sourcing cia.gov/library/public…
32) So, LETS ASSUME that Russia's nuclear arsenal is comparable to our own. It would amount to at least a THIRD of their military spending, while ours which put us at our lowest readiness levels ever took up... eh, 4%?
33) Oooooh, now HERE'S a fun comparison! Our total military population? 2 million or so total, 1.3 million on active duty. globalfirepower.com/country-milita…
34) Russia's? 1 million. On literally 1/10th of the budget. Most of it is in their ground forces, infantry and armored tanks, etc, with 4x the number of tanks that we have. globalfirepower.com/country-milita…
35) The math does not add up. But, hey, they have the same number of submarines as we do, so surely the NAVY must be in decent shape, right?!
36) OH WAIT! Budget cuts. rferl.org/a/russia-despi…
37) But hey, ground troops, right? Surely they can win a fight on the ground! Let me introduce you to the Russian Battalion Tactical Group russiandefpolicy.blog/tag/battalion-…
38) "A BTG is a motorized rifle or tank battalion of 2-4 companies with attached ATGM, artillery, reconnaissance, engineer, and rear support platoons making a fairly self-sufficient ground combat unit."
39) Given media reports, it is likely a battalion tactical group is what engaged US forces in Syria earlier this year. It was annihilated. nytimes.com/2018/05/24/wor…
40) Let me reiterate: The LARGEST direct engagement between US and Russian soldiers since WW1 happened earlier this year, and it was a one-sided SLAUGHTER. An entire self-sufficient battalion attacked what was at most 40 US soldiers, and got annihilated.
41) And you want to tell me that Russia has a nuclear arsenal that we should be worried about? The $65 billion number for their budget I quoted you wasn't the official one. Officially for Russia, its $17 billion. the $65 billion INCLUDES all the hidden spending.
42) Hidden spending which includes all of the 'Russian mercenaries' in Syria and Ukraine.
But let's ratchet it back again.
WHY? Why did Russia attack in Syria? Why did they interfere in our elections? WHY?
But let's ratchet it back again.
WHY? Why did Russia attack in Syria? Why did they interfere in our elections? WHY?
43) Let me introduce you to Prigozhin. This guy is the money guy, funding the Wagner group (the mercenaries), the IRA (the troll farm shitposting on facebook and Twitter), etc. vox.com/world/2018/2/2…
44) That's right. The same guy that runs the group trying to keep Hillary from winning ALSO runs the group that tried to attack US forces in Syria.
WHY?
WHY?
45) Well, think about Russia during Obama's years. They got pretty much free reign to do whatever the hell they wanted. Obama wouldn't arm Ukraine, Syria was war crime central and Obama wouldn't put a stop to it, Russia could build a pipeline to sell oil to NATO countries.
46) Hillary was going to end all of that. Russia thought Hillary was going to invade, and really, Hillary probably WOULD. She was building up a casus belli to.
47) So, ANYONE would be preferable to Hillary. So, Russia interferes to help Trump, and they don't contest the collusion bit because REALLY, they LIKE having half the political establishment hamstringing anything Trump might try to do. Why stop that?
48) But what about Syria? What about that attack?
Well, the Wagner group in Syria's primary goal was to seize oil fields for Assad. Assuming Trump would back down like Obama's administration did, they went for it, and got their hand chopped off. businessinsider.com/russia-wagner-…
Well, the Wagner group in Syria's primary goal was to seize oil fields for Assad. Assuming Trump would back down like Obama's administration did, they went for it, and got their hand chopped off. businessinsider.com/russia-wagner-…
49) And there's the final big WHY. Putin underestimated Trump. Putin thought Trump would be easy to push around because of political gridlock in the United States. That's WHY the IRA sent lawyers to contest Mueller's indictment of them, to help spur the arguments!
50) So, let's recap.
Why did Russia interfere in the elections? They thought Hillary would invade them, and Trump would be easy to push around.
Why did Russia interfere in the elections? They thought Hillary would invade them, and Trump would be easy to push around.
51) Why would Hillary invade Russia? Because the EU needs Russia's oil fields INSIDE the EU so they can become totally self sufficient, and Hillary's donors would all get BIG paydays from a growing EU that was paying for US service industries.
52) Why were Hillary and the EU so sure of victory? Because they knew Russia's nuclear arsenal was all bluster. Hint: Trump does too. How do you think he got Russia to do this:
53) Trump's no pushover, and Putin bit off more than he could chew.
But why are the Democrats still pushing SO HARD for a war with Russia? Because, the EU deal is still on, and they all stand to make a LOT of money if that happens.
But why are the Democrats still pushing SO HARD for a war with Russia? Because, the EU deal is still on, and they all stand to make a LOT of money if that happens.
54) And maybe knock Trump out of the presidency too, but really, end of the day, its all about the money.
See? Told you me thinking was an incredibly dangerous concept.
/end
See? Told you me thinking was an incredibly dangerous concept.
/end
