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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Compare and contrast.

1. @IanDunt on what a no-deal Brexit means

politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/…
Compare and contrast.

2. @davidcollinslaw on busting the Remain-inspired myths about trade on WTO terms

brexitcentral.com/busting-remain…

(Hint, they can't both be right)
OK, there's already been a lot of interesting comment on the "compare and contrast", and I have to go.

Here's my take. (Excuse the "elementary" typo)

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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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It's going to be a massive day in parliament. Your amuse-bouche, in which govt might be found in contempt of parliament, is kicking off now parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/83…
Starmer: "It's no longer for the govt to judge. It is for parliament, which is a higher authority."
Near silence in Chamber while Starmer is speaking.
Read 215 tweets
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@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt Die Bürgerrechte der @The3Million sowie @BritishInEurope finden trotz allem zu wenig Gewichtung! Die EU hat nur dann eine Zukunft, wenn sie sich weniger von Lobbygruppen&mächtigen Wirtschaftsunternehmen leiten lässt&ein Bürgerparlament installiert,das mit entscheidet&konrolliert!
@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt @The3Million @BritishInEurope @Eu27K @julienfouchet1 @inthebrickhouse @fairvoteuk @Lawyers4EU @UKEUchallenge @voiceseurope @AndrewAtter @julie4nw Another problem,UK democracy is hijacked by populists.@guyverhofstadt“Europe has a 5th column in its ranks:Putin's cheerleaders who want to destroy Europe&liberal democracy:LePen,Wilders..use Kremlin money&intelligence. Farage's friend Banks colluded with Russia 2deliver #Brexit
@phoenix_de @guyverhofstadt @The3Million @BritishInEurope @Eu27K @julienfouchet1 @inthebrickhouse @fairvoteuk @Lawyers4EU @UKEUchallenge @voiceseurope @AndrewAtter @julie4nw @julienfouchet1 “Our pan-European movement @Eu27K wants to mobilise people in all of the 27 states so that people understand why the UK is leaving the EU–they don’t know in the memberstates that this Brexit is illegal.We aim 2 create a support committee in each of the 27 states.“
Read 51 tweets
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Brexit seems to be the solution to all our economic woes (short thread)

E.g., Hannan thinks that Brexit will be great because house prices will crash by 1/3. That will be great for first-time buyers, right?
Problem is last time house prices crashed (2008) home ownership in younger people did not increase. It decreased by quite a bit as can be seen in this graph. 2/
That's because housing prices are connected to lots of other things in the economy, such as job prospects, lending criteria. It's not that people in 2008 were like "Hey look, all those houses around us have become cheaper. Now we can finally buy!" 3/
Read 25 tweets
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1. The no deal #Brexit advocates are in full spin mode. They say we can trade on WTO terms alone. So anybody with a clue asks them about aviation and nuclear sectors etc where they mutter something about bilateral deals. That's an admission that we cannot trade on WTO rules alone
2. They then pretend we can have an amicable negotiated exit to WTO rules. We can't. This would be a package with all the bilaterals covering aviation and nuclear - there bare minimum to avoid civil emergencies. It would not include any mutual recognition on anything.
3. There is no way the EU would sign such an agreement without the existing agreements on citizens rights, the financial settlement and the NI backstop. There is no rowing back from that. The government would have to agree or there is no deal.
Read 18 tweets
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1. This is going to sound a bit preachy but I'm going to roll with it anyway. The Tory Brexiters have pulled a fast one. They have shifted to goalposts and now propagandists are spinning the narrative that any deal is a betrayal of #Brexit. These people are professional liars.
2. If we had a functioning media the people who say we can rely on WTO rules as a basis for our post-Brexit trade relations would be hauled over the coals by all of the major newspapers because it is not a matter of mere opinion. It is an outright demonstrable lie.
3. But rather than outing liars as indeed our media should, many vessels are actually complicit in the lie. Particularly BrexitCentral, City AM, The Telegraph, the Express and The Spectator. They will give houseroom to liars without flinching. This is what they do now.
Read 17 tweets
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1. A strange disease stalks the land. When a person is confronted by well documented consequences of leaving the EU without a deal they simply grunt "Project fear!". This is odd because we are not talking about #Brexit economic projections...
2. It all comes down to this little thing you might have heard of called Article 50. The pertinent part being "The Treaties shall cease to apply".
3. You see, at the moment we have a deal. We have EU membership. We are part of the treaties. And if we leave and we do not secure a withdrawal agreement and subsequent arrangements for trade then we do not have a deal. The Treaties shall cease to apply.
Read 21 tweets

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