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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
, 21 tweets, 10 min read Read on Twitter
Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
4. Arguing that lots of countries trade well with the EU “on WTO terms” misses the point.

If, like them, the UK had never been in the Single Market, it would do well on WTO terms too.

The problem is the adjustment needed to change direction, like turning a tanker around.

4/17 Tanker photo | pixabay CC0
It takes time to turn a tanker around.

It takes time for an economy to change direction. If you try to do it overnight on March 29, something’s got to give. But what exactly?

5/17

(Source: opensea.pro/blog/10-tanker…)
5. The impact will not be spread evenly across the UK economy. Some will even benefit from an instantaneous “no deal” — some who no longer face competition from EU imports, owners of warehouses and land used to prepare for “no deal”, port dredgers, ferry companies 😉, etc.

6/17
Overwhelming evidence, from numerous sections of the economy: @michaelgove, the National Farmers Union, road hauliers, car & aircraft manufacturers, the chemicals industry, universities, all the government’s preparation papers. From analysis.

7/17

If they are wrong, if they're all wrong, if any of them are wrong, show us why. Their reasons are all different.

Remember, this is about “no deal” on March 29.

The most detailed analysis of “no deal” I know is by @rjbarfield1 brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWT…

8/17 Screenshot of the cover of Richard Barfield's paper
Here’s a short version on @UKTradeForum

uktradeforum.net/2018/11/08/wha…

9/17
Here’s a taste of his assessment of the impact (p.54)

brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWT…

10/17 Screenshot of most of page 54
Next, some big-picture analysis (big picture = smooths out variations of impact in the details). Even then, this (p.56).

Prediction: hard Brexiters will dismiss this because economic analysis is “often wrong”. OK. So give us the “right” figures.

brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWT…

11/17 Screenshot of summary bullet points, method applied to the basic WTO option, page 56
Richard then looks at the impact in various sectors and UK regions (page 60). He considers opportunities as well as challenges. Worth reading.

brexitfactbase.com/pdfs/UKTradeWT…

12/17 Screenshot of Table 9 on page 60
An indication of the variations is the range of tariffs. Richard’s paper has a table on page 69. This one on the WTO website shows in more detail what UK exporters will face when exporting to the EU under WTO terms, including peak tariffs

wto.org/english/res_e/…

13/17 Screenshot of the table labelled Part A.2
And then there’s this 213-page Commons Library report

researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi…

(👇🏽page 48)

14/17 Screenshot of 3 paragraphs starting
The paper continues with a huge amount of detail on trade in goods and services and a wide range of other areas.

It includes this 👇🏽 warning (page 52)

researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefi…

15/17 Screenshot of December 2017 House of Lords EU Committee quoted saying the later a no-deal outcome is known, the more damaging it is likely to be (page 52)
And that’s just two sources.

Problem: none of us has the time to read everything. And if we’re not economists or trade geeks we’re not going to read any of that.

16/17
But those who seriously, repeatedly argue for “no deal” on March 29 have a responsibility to look at the detail. Tell us what exactly is wrong with the comments from each sector, the analysis.

No apologies for repeating — this is specifically about “no deal ON MARCH 29".

17/17
(See tweet 2/17 above.)

This 👇🏽 by @anandMenon1

P.S. (1) I should have included this👇🏽 @uk_tpo analysis of the impact of "no deal" on employment by parliamentary constituency, from November

blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publicat…
P.S. (2) And if anyone wants to know why "no deal" has these impacts outlined higher up in this thread, this👇🏽 by @UKandEU is a comprehensive explanation

Short and long versions: ukandeu.ac.uk/new-report-exp… Screenshot of main part of the linked page, with bullet points summarising the paper and a quote from Anand Menon
P.S. (3) 👇🏾

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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Finally, over a month after some of us pointed it out (in my case on the deal with Switzerland), this is getting proper attention. Those rolled over free trade agreements are not what @LiamFox and @tradegovuk are claiming. Thanks @BenChu_ and @uk_tpo
I tried to point this👆🏾 out by email to @guardian & @RJPartington after they published this👇🏾 story a week ago. No reply.

Let's hope they take note now. There's far too much false information about Brexit. What's needed is policies based on facts.

theguardian.com/business/2019/…
In case anyone is wondering, here's how the Swiss govt itself has explained the Swiss-UK deal, with clear differences between the Withdrawal Agreement's transition (the UK treated as if it was still an EU member) and "no deal" or after the transition.

tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/uk-…
Read 5 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
Quite a heated debate now over the statutory instrument changing the "exit date" in UK law so it aligns with the actual exit date under EU law. Is this the release of suppressed mischief that was bubbling under the indicative votes debate
It's taken some listening to a very long speech, but it seems William Cash is challenge the legality of the proposal to have two exit dates
I give up. Switching to people cuddling sharks
Read 3 tweets
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Peter Ungphakorn
@CoppetainPU
A thread on GATT Article 24 and the proposed Brexit options, since it’s likely to be mentioned.

It’s not just “Malthouse Plan B”. At least 10 of the 16 options have to comply with GATT Article 24

And then there’s GATS Article 5 for services



1/18
Reminder:

GATT Art24 applies to ANY free trade agreement in goods between WTO members such as the UK and EU.

GATS Art5 apples to ANY free trade agreement (or closer integration) in services between them.

All the options proposed are here: publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cm…

2/18
Borrowing from @DawnHFoster.

Option A (Bill Cash): Condemns the PM’s Brexit deal and today’s votes, bans MPs from ever doing this again without a two-thirds majority

GATT Art24/GATS Art5 — not relevant

3/18 Screenshot of option A from the Parliament website. All other images are similar
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