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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
And here's another: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2018/08/17/wha…

Let's keep the debate accurate because there are a lot of truly serious issues that need to be tackled realistically

3/3
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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 18 tweets
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The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Read 10 tweets
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This starts the 90-day period to March 21 for WTO members to claim an interest and the right to negotiate over the UK's proposed commitments on goods (tariffs, tariff quotas, farm subsidies).

The focus will be particularly on tariff quotas.

1/4
Some/all WTO negotiations are expected after Mar 21. The schedules (lists) of commitments will be certified when all objections are dropped. The modifications won't be needed until UK & EU no longer have a customs union eg, end of transition under the Withdrawal Agreement.

2/4
The EU is some months ahead of the UK because it is only modifying its tariff quotas. It went straight to the GATT Article 28 process in July, whereas the UK is only doing that now.

3/4
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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1. With Corbyn saying this, there is now no viable chain of events that leads to #Remain 🇪🇺 so pro-eu campaigners must now put all their efforts into EFTA/EEA.
2. EFTA/EEA gives both leavers and remainers a big chunk of what they want - a settlement the British public can live with.
3. Despite some miscommunication and misinterpretation by commentators this option would not require a permanent customs union. However there would likely need to be an interim cu while necessary agreements, systems put in place and training is carried out.
Read 6 tweets
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What has @wikileaks has taught and shown us about the negotiation of secret #trade​ ​agreements? A thread. Add information you've found to be in the public interest that whistleblowers have trusted to the #WikiLeaks archive. #WikiLeaksIsAPublisher #Assange #SubstanceOverSmea​r
ACTA, the "Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement", was ultimately rejected. ​T​he agreement was an attempt to create a new global standard for intellectual property rights enforcement. wikileaks.org/wiki/Proposed_…
WikiLeaks released a document during talks at the WTO in Geneva that showed how the EU used threats to "reprogram development aid" if developing countries do not agree to sign a new free trade agreement with the EU. wikileaks.org/wiki/EU_aid_de…
Read 10 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets
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@hereburgher @panmisthropist @OwenPaterson Ok. Let's be clear on one thing. Every country in the world has tariffs on imports. Singapore has virtually none, but they are a major exception.

Country X protects a, b, & c and country Y will protect d, e &f. You can't necessarily do a direct comparison on individual items.
@hereburgher @panmisthropist @OwenPaterson When a country is a member of the WTO the have to present their tariffs schedule to WTO. There are two sorts of tariffs that relate to WTO membership. There's the bound tariff and the MFN applied tariff. We'll come to preferential later.

wits.worldbank.org/wits/wits/wits…
@hereburgher @panmisthropist @OwenPaterson The bound tariff is the the upper limit that a country has legally commuted itself to not exceed. The MFN tariff is the rate actually applied under the GATT Most Favoured Nation rule.

Th MFN rule is the cornerstone of GATT/WTO. It's actually the core part of Article I.
Read 83 tweets
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"Trump has used Harley-Davidson as an example of a US business that is being harmed by trade barriers. Yet Harley has warned consistently against tariffs, saying they would negatively impact sales"

Harley, hit by tariffs, shifts some production overseas apnews.com/6c8942f7363743…
Important issue highlighted by @riotwomennn: are tariff exemptions determined by bribes?

Corker: "22,000 companies have asked for exemptions.There is no basis to deal with them. Are they going to grant these exclusions based on political contributions?"
Trump’s trade war with the European Union is going to cost Harley-Davidson as much as $100 million a year and force the manufacturer to shift production out of the U.S. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 232 tweets
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1. A thread on #trade and aid.

One of the first tangible benefits of #Brexit I've seen is the emerging reform of @DFID_UK where it is becoming more of an arm of trade policy than a state owned humanitarian NGO. I would like that to go much further and rethink trade.
2. I do not think we should be wasting too much effort on free trade deals largely because they are of questionable value and encourage inefficient value chains. Any work on tariffs should really be reserved for multilateral activity.
3. Instead we need DfID as the spearhead of our trade policy. There is no reason why we cannot pursue humanitarian goals and enhance our trade while we are at it. For a start we can do a lot with medicines and pharmacy products.
Read 21 tweets

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#ISDS #EU #Italian #Spain #executive #freedom #abortion #Persecution #subsidy #Brexit #MN3 #corporations #FTAs #The5Million #ABTV #nationalism #workers #Asian #zones #doom #Rotherham #EnlargedEurope #chicken #equality #StatutoryInstrument

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