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Peter Ungphakorn @CoppetainPU
, 10 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
The "transitional arrangement" @bbaschuk refers to is, for now, the proposed Withdrawal Agreement (WA). It has provisions (129.1) specifically dealing with issues such as the WTO's Government Procurement Agreement (GPA)

What needs to be sorted out?

1/10

gov.uk/government/pub…
With the WA, the time to sort out the GPA is extended under the WA's transition period. Without the WA and no consensus in the WTO's Government Procurement Committee (the GPA signatories), UK preferential access is lost.

2/10

Source (paywalled): ….agribusinessintelligence.informa.com/PL218600/New-s… Screenshot of paragraphs in the linked paywalled article quoting a WTO news story in which the UK and EU say the UK will be treated as an EU member until the end of the transition, and Article 129.1 plus footnote of the draft Withdrawal Agreement
The problem isn't the UK's offer (already accepted in principle) but legalese & procedure in the committee's draft decision

@bbaschuk shared a leaked US amendment to the EU's draft committee decision.

It is revealing. This first part is unamended.

3/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1pW-3P0… Screenshot of the top of page 2 of the US proposed draft decision, down to
Next come alternative versions of paragraph 1, with alternative wording on how to describe the UK's status as an EU member until Brexit day or to the end of a transition, if there is one. Mainly legalese.

4/10 Screenshot of two versions of paragraph 1 in the US proposed text
Next, a paragraph on the committee accepting the UK's accession to the GPA (but needing ratification in UK parliament), tweaked with "in its own right".

Par3 proposes 6 months for the UK to confirm ratification (submit "instrument"), replacing reference to 30 days, but …

5/10 Screenshot of tweaked paragraph 2, deleted paragraph 2 and new paragraph 3 on the UK submitting its instrument of accession
Alternative wording on par.3 (the UK submitting its instrument of accession to the Government Procurement Agreement). Includes options: no earlier than 30 days before the GPA ceases to apply to the UK as an EU member, or in six months after the committee accepts the UK.

6/10 Screenshot of alternative paragraph 3 on the UK submitting its instrument of accession to the agreement
Paragraphs 4 to 6 contain tweaks to add "in its own right". The US proposes moving a reference to a UK statement down to a new paragraph 7.

7/10 Screenshot of paragraphs 4 to 6 in the US proposed amended decision text
The US's proposed paragraph 7 calls for the UK to submit its promised update of government agencies open to international competition in procurement.

A footnote in the UK's offer accepts that the list it's copied from the EU28's commitments is out of date (see next tweet)

8/10 Screenshot of proposed paragraphs 7 to 10 in the US proposed amendments to the draft decision
The footnote: "Where the functions of an entity listed in this Annex have been or are transferred to another entity, which is itself a contracting authority, the successor entity shall be deemed to be included in this Annex …".

9/10

drive.google.com/file/d/1PlNV6U… Screenshot of footnote 2 in the linked document. Most of it is quoted in the tweet.
Finally, the US wants the UK to submit more updated information if the UK's acceding to the Government Procurement Agreement is delayed into a Brexit transition.

We'll see in Feb if the UK accepts the US's procedural changes of pars 3, 7, 10.

wto.org/english/news_e…

10/10 Screenshot of last paragraph of news story.
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More from @CoppetainPU see all

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Some Brexiters (by no means all) apparently see “no deal” increasingly as a “viable” option, particularly no deal on March 29.

Those who argue in favour, need to address in detail the weight of evidence that it would be seriously harmful for many.

huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/increasi…

1/17
Remember:

1. Arguing against “no deal” is not arguing against Brexit. (It’s sad that this has to be repeated.)

2. “No deal” on March 29, is far worse than a gradual transition to “no deal” over a number of years. And it can’t be a “managed no deal” unless there’s a deal.

2/17
3. Even “no deal” on March 29 won’t mean the end of the world (a phrase used repeatedly), but for many it could mean the end of their present livelihoods.

If it’s a “viable” option, define “viable”.

And for whom?

3/17
Read 20 tweets
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This is nonsense.

No one does deals to "escape" the WTO. They remain WTO members, bound by the agreements they made in the WTO.

They get some better terms through free trade deals, but the WTO agreements remain the shell. Those free trade agreements reside within the WTO shell
One of the needs of Brexit (whatever the outcome) is to understand the implications for trade, including the WTO and its agreements.

It doesn't help if influential people like @mikegalsworthy & @Scientists4EU can't be bothered to find out what the WTO really is.

Pointers

1/3
Here's somewhere to start: tradebetablog.wordpress.com/2017/12/17/wto…

2/3
Read 4 tweets
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This starts the 90-day period to March 21 for WTO members to claim an interest and the right to negotiate over the UK's proposed commitments on goods (tariffs, tariff quotas, farm subsidies).

The focus will be particularly on tariff quotas.

1/4
Some/all WTO negotiations are expected after Mar 21. The schedules (lists) of commitments will be certified when all objections are dropped. The modifications won't be needed until UK & EU no longer have a customs union eg, end of transition under the Withdrawal Agreement.

2/4
The EU is some months ahead of the UK because it is only modifying its tariff quotas. It went straight to the GATT Article 28 process in July, whereas the UK is only doing that now.

3/4
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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It seems incredible to me we should be asked to *welcome* the prospect of being a non-voting member of the customs union, with the EU controlling our trade and customs policy. 1/
To be clear about how this would work: when the EU signed a trade agreement with a third country (eg China), in the backstop the U.K. would be compelled to make all the market concessions agreed by the EU BUT that third country would not need to extend its concessions to us. 2/
In other words, there would be no reciprocity. None. We would become the EU’s expendable bargaining chip in its trade negotiations. 3/
Read 10 tweets
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1. Reading tweets over the (notional) Christmas Brexit truce, I’ve been struck by the repeated confusion about what the UK can / cannot do over the three months to 29th March 2019.
2. As Parliament resumes and the surrounding discussion heats up, it may therefore perhaps be helpful to offer a little (further) clarification about how the process under Article 50 TEU works.
3. Once Article 50 is triggered – as was done by the Prime Minister’s letter on 29th March 2017 – the two year time period specified by Article 50 runs down automatically.
Read 22 tweets
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Right, here we go. Please fasten seat-belts and make sure your trays are stowed in an upright position, and prepare for rebuttal of the @peoplesvote_uk "dodgy dossier" (this may be a long one....... there is a lot to rebut). You may wish to take tea and come back in an hour.
Essentially the #PVdodgyDossier repeats a few easy-to-discredit old anti-EEA myths, with a smattering of deeper research meant to be authoritative yet isn't. Shame as the author @jonlis1 is a solid researcher let-down by not knowing the law & having his work "edited" by PV.
I have covered two of the myths ("rule taker" and "continuing contributions") in this article. reaction.life/eea-efta-can-f… This is probably as good a place to start as any to understand why the #PVdodgyDossier is so unreliable.
Read 103 tweets
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50 simple chunks of reality to help MPs in these difficult times.

1. The Withdrawal Agreement (WA) is not up for renegotiation
2. The Political Declaration (PD) might be tweaked cosmetically
3. The future relationship will be negotiated during the transition period
4. There will be no transition without the WA
5. The will be no WA without the Financial Settlement
6. A backstop cannot be unilaterally ended or it is not a backstop
7. There will be no WA without a backstop
8. The PD is not a deal on the future relationship
9. The PD is wish list, not binding
10. The PD leaves huge, crucial questions entirely open
11. The level of access to EU markets and programmes is dependent on the level of alignment to EU rules UKGov is willing to commit to.
Read 21 tweets
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001/ [article content in this tweet series 001-180 reproduced with permission from Martin Howe QC of Lawyers for Britain @lawyers4britain]
#quote "Leaving the EU on WTO terms: pulling down the barriers to world trade
Introduction: why prices will FALL after Brexit, not rise" /002
002/ #quote "Over the past couple of weeks, the media have been full of lurid scare stories about what will happen if the UK leaves the EU on WTO terms, because negotiations with the EU do not result in a withdrawal agreement." /003
#tariffs #NoDeal #Brexit #WTO #ProjectFear #shortages #food #medicines
003/ #quote "One of the most ridiculous and UNJUSTIFIED of these absurd scare stories is that it will lead to higher prices, and even shortages, of foods and medicines." /004
Read 180 tweets

Trending hashtags

#textiles #economists #ASEAN #NOW #territories #Strauss #pt #NoDeal #tariffs #WTO #HouseOfCommons #exhaustion #CustomsUnion #scaremongering #IndependenceDay #imports #tax #farmers #dollars #FDA #importing #Yeovil #alcohol #ChristmasTax #price

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