One thing I've often considered but never really countenanced was Brexit 'blackmail'. Have a read of this (via the Irish Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport) 
Then you look at this via Politico. Via sea is just not really viable for some types of trade, particularly foodstuffs. 38 hours is *bad*. Also remember Dublin Port is by far the biggest
are the fundamentalist Brexiteers crazy enough to use the UK land bridge as leverage against Ireland? Yes. Do we rely on the land bridge for our economy (essentially)? Yes. Even if it's not used deliberately as leverage, any hard brexit fucks up our ability to import and export.
Any delays in UK ports will lead to massive problems with imported supplies, and our ability to export to the EU. We are arguably over dependent on the UK for the functioning of our economy.
so this yarn in the Irish Examiner around stockpiling medicines is *important* irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/i…
1. If the land bridge is closed, do we have the capacity to import/export via the continent directly? Not really. Not enough ships? Taking too long? Should be better for non-perishable than for perishable goods?
Could we end up with having to get/lease more ships to increase our direct-to- EU trade? Will we expand Rosslare? Cork? Can we extract ourselves from our UK land bridge dependency?
Will the EU/Commission have to invest in Ireland? Will it have to assist us in the event of a hard brexit? It would seem likely, no? Physical goods have to get out of the country and have to get into the country.
The figures are, eh, concerning.
Imagining some of the worst case scenarios there would be political decisions required. The EU would have to come to Ireland's assistance, and by that I mean they can't let a Member State take the hit the way we took the bank debt hit. This is physical goods.
Things in our favour:
1. We have 4.5m people but we produce enough food to feed 36m.
2. We produce lots of medicines (but not everything obviously)
1. We have 4.5m people but we produce enough food to feed 36m.
2. We produce lots of medicines (but not everything obviously)
Things not in our favour:
1. Our port infrastructure is underdeveloped
2. We're physically far away from the Continent
3. The EU will be forced to lend enormous assistance if the shit hits the fan, they can't be seen to cut a Member State loose. Other Members would get nervous
1. Our port infrastructure is underdeveloped
2. We're physically far away from the Continent
3. The EU will be forced to lend enormous assistance if the shit hits the fan, they can't be seen to cut a Member State loose. Other Members would get nervous
(the last one is sort of in our favour, sort of not, depending on how you look at it!)
Is it prudent, in Ireland, to stockpile certain products? Yes. Our ability to import could be in serious trouble, given Holyhead / Liverpool route being overwhelmed by either delays that are either accidental or deliberate. I don't mean panic buying either...
But next time you're shopping in Super Valu or whatever, ask yourself, where did that product come from? If it was imported, it's highly likely it came from, or via, the UK. That path could be in trouble come March.
And if you think aircraft will save us - it could only work as a stop gap. Too small and too expensive. You need ships.
Who knows, maybe Ireland will be the new Berlin airlift or we will do a reverse Dunkirk with supplies instead of people.
