10 years ago: August 5 2008
Many reserve bank presidents want hike
Bernanke: "it would be extraordinary if we were to begin raising rates without an immediate inflation problem with the economy still in a declining or extremely weakened situation." federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
Many reserve bank presidents want hike
Bernanke: "it would be extraordinary if we were to begin raising rates without an immediate inflation problem with the economy still in a declining or extremely weakened situation." federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy…
After he emailed Don Kohn, Fed Vice Chair: "‘I find myself conciliating holders of the unreasonable opinion that we should be tightening even as the economy and financial system are in a precarious position and inflation/commodity pressures appear to be easing." (pg238 of memoir)
You'll be shocked to find out who had best take
Yellen: "I see no case, at this juncture, for signaling that we are likely to adjust policy upward before the end of the year. Indeed, there is a non-negligible probability, to my mind, that the next move will be down and not up."
Yellen: "I see no case, at this juncture, for signaling that we are likely to adjust policy upward before the end of the year. Indeed, there is a non-negligible probability, to my mind, that the next move will be down and not up."
Can't tell if Evans is joking -- can you weigh in, @ChicagoFed? -- but I've never seen anything like this in a transcript before.
"By the time I was done, they [private board of directors] were asking what the procedure was for dissenting from my recommendation."
"By the time I was done, they [private board of directors] were asking what the procedure was for dissenting from my recommendation."
Richard Fisher @DallasFed with the only dissent (although other non-voters seemed to agree with him):
"I think it would be wise, just to shift my analogy here and think in canine terms, to take a newspaper across the snout and call for a 25 basis point increase."
"I think it would be wise, just to shift my analogy here and think in canine terms, to take a newspaper across the snout and call for a 25 basis point increase."
.@CharlesPlosser of @philadelphiafed says his board also pressuring for rate hike:
"I went into my board recommending no change and got considerable push-back in discussion about how we dissent and what the consequences of doing that are. They are concerned about inflation."
"I went into my board recommending no change and got considerable push-back in discussion about how we dissent and what the consequences of doing that are. They are concerned about inflation."
(might inspire me to go back and look to see whether any of the reserve bank boards were pressuring bank presidents to do more on unemployment in 2009 and 2010)
at the risk of pissing off more people, we soldier on. Rick Mishkin, in his last meeting, warns his colleagues about "the issue of focusing too much on the federal funds rate as indicating the stance of monetary policy" He is responding to those saying 2% ffr = very accommodative
Lest you think the hawks had no influence because they did not get a rate hike. Bernanke brushes aside Yellen's suggestions to make the statement more balanced to "avoid further controversy." (Even though from his other comments it seems he might agree with her).
for the record, worrying about inflation in August 2008 was not completely crazy ... but here's the staff forecast
and..
more context about the economic situation from the Fed staff
