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David Henig @DavidHenigUK
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Coming towards the end of the week this is probably a good time for a factual and honest assessment of where we are with Brexit.

You may find that elsewhere. Here coming next is this week's update to the still unscientific Brexit Probability Index...
And the news from the week's Brexit debate is that nothing has shifted* the equally unsophisticated and unscientific Brexit Probability Index**

(* - some titles have been changed. see next tweet)
(** - it isn't really an index either)
Some categorisation clarification. No-deal WTO - out in March. A short term extension - essential agreements e.g. aviation. FTA plus or minus because what some call no-deal deal is actually quite engaged. Chequers and Jersey option are similar = goods only alignment.
Usual disclaimers apply. This is unscientific and subjective. I am not a ratings agency. I am not Liam Fox. I do not advise Barnier or the PM.

(and however much I say this someone will still point out the logical flaws).

Don't miss next week's update, same time, same place...
With apologies for the added sophistication (blame / thank the twitter user who helped set this up) here is the time series version of the inaccurately named Brexit Probability Index... to be updated weekly on a Friday from now on
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As forecast the UK Government has committed to following a significant part of single market rules after Brexit as part of the backstop and commitments to Northern Ireland (doc - assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…)
Although the Government paper says this will be "only a small fraction of EU rules", in fact there are nearly 70 pages of the Withdrawal Agreement simply listing the regulations Northern Ireland will have to follow under the backstop (example page below)
In case you are missing the significance, the UK Government has confirmed that the whole country will follow EEA / single market disciplines without any representation until a new deal can be agreed.
Read 5 tweets
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Brexit is testing Parliamentary procedure. The Government does not command a majority.

Might as well break protocol further, it is time for a Parliamentary committee to take control of the Brexit process.
Yes, I can think of many reasons why this won't work, but nothing that would work better. We're going to be stuck in Parliamentary bickering for weeks unless something new is done.
See also this Guardian proposal as championed by @stellacreasy among others for a Brexit citizens assembly. We have to break out of where we are and not perpetuate divisionism theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 3 tweets
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With the Brexit debate returning to Parliament today, let's go back to basics and explore the facts, key issues, and questions that should be raised in the coming days. Thread... 1/
Most important point, which cannot be emphasised enough - the Withdrawal Agreement is primarily concerned with the terms of the divorce, e.g. financial, citizenship, and not the future (though the Irish backstop complicates this) 2/
Thus any statement a Minister makes about the future relationship being secured (such as that below from the Gov's 40 reasons to back the Brexit deal) is false. The political declaration setting out the future relationship is not binding. 3/
Read 20 tweets

Related threads

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The reason we are in this mess...

Most MPs are useless party drones, collecting their pay and expenses, and voting the way they are told to.

When the #Brexit advisory referendum result was announced, the correct next step should have been a Parliamentary debate on whether...
...the UK should leave, or #RemainInTheEU. That, as far too few MPs will admit, is their job. They should make decisions on our behalf.

The majority of them know we should not leave the EU, because they know how much harm it will do to everyone but a few very rich people.
About 400 MPs think we should #RemainInTheEU, but most of that 400 think that hanging on to their seat, no matter how much harm they do, is the best thing to do. Because pay and expenses matter more to them than we do. Because they are scared of the whips.
Read 7 tweets
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Please take the time to listen & RT the hell out of trade negotiator @JasonJHunter taking @BrexitCentral editor @isaby to the cleaners on the catastrophic implications of a no deal #Brexit.

Isaby's deathly silence towards the end is something to behold:

soundcloud.com/bbcradiokent/n…
@JasonJHunter - "This happens every day in international trade, the fact that you don't know what you're talking about doesn't do you any favours.....
@isaby -
For those unaware of Matthew Elliott's groom-of-the-stool, here's Jonathan Isaby "defending" his then deputy at BrexitCentral & #VoteLeave patsy, Darren Grimes, before Grimes was found to have broken electoral law by the @ElectoralCommUK in the #EURef:

brexitcentral.com/what-you-need-…
Read 4 tweets
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1) Corbyn, #Brexit & facing reality - thread
Since this was posted there's been several variations from his supporters on why his responses were "reasonable", which in turn illustrate how far they are happy to put party before country, and Corbyn before party
2) the question, as a reminder, was very simple "do you (personally) believe we'll be better or worse off after #Brexit?"
One response is "he answered this"
He absolutely didn't, he waffled & none of his 6 answers can be interpreted as "yes" or "no"
3) "but Labour are pushing for the best deal/2nd ref/it's a negotiating position"

These may or may not be true, but they are irrelevant as to why Corbyn didn't answer the question - he was asked about his personal position
Read 11 tweets
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1. The Leave Alliance is the only campaign to have produced a workable comprehensive plan. Our recommendation is to leave via the EEA. This is not because we are soft brexiteers.

#Brexit thread.
2. We took the view that a vision without a plan is just a pipe dream. In beginning the analysis we first had to ask of the vision was achievable and relevant. That's where we first hit problems. The classic eurosceptic free trade mantra hasn't kept up with the times.
3. This is largely because free trade does not exist and has not existed for some time. A free trade deal is not free trade. It is regulated trade - and we find that in the era of globalisation the driver of intergovernment trade talks is regulatory harmonisation.
Read 25 tweets
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1) thread on the "missing anti-brexit surge"
It's fair to say that there is only a small (though significant) movement towards "remain" & against #Brexit, leading some to say that a #PeoplesVote might lead to the same result
But let's look at where we are

prospectmagazine.co.uk//blogs/peter-k…
2) the press is still largely pro #Brexit. The BBC has, in the name of balance, been at best hopeless in holding brexiters to account for previous statements and more importantly, both major parties are still pretending their Brexit will be OK
There's no major voice against it
3) and yet, despite the lack of any major voice exposing the reality of #Brexit, the message is still getting through about what a screw up Brexit really is.

There's consistent polls showing a majority who think Brexit is going badly, and a lack of faith in government handling
Read 18 tweets
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1) Clegg - a thread
There's a lot of flack going around about Clegg "propping up Tories" & "enabling austerity". Let's look at this with our reality glasses on because imho this is an example of why tribalism is killing our political system.
2) firstly, coalitions are not unusual, in fact they are the norm in many countries. Entering into a coalition is just what happens in PR Democracies. We'll probably have a few more over the next few years. So entering a coalition is not "propping up" but a solution
3) attacking a party for entering a coalition is not a mature or reasoned approach to how hung parliaments work, if this was the norm no PR Democracy would ever get a Government

LDs are in coalition with multiple Labour groups at local level, and no one talks about "propping up"
Read 22 tweets

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