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tony nog #FBPE @tony_nog
, 18 tweets, 6 min read Read on Twitter
1) thread on the "missing anti-brexit surge"
It's fair to say that there is only a small (though significant) movement towards "remain" & against #Brexit, leading some to say that a #PeoplesVote might lead to the same result
But let's look at where we are…
2) the press is still largely pro #Brexit. The BBC has, in the name of balance, been at best hopeless in holding brexiters to account for previous statements and more importantly, both major parties are still pretending their Brexit will be OK
There's no major voice against it
3) and yet, despite the lack of any major voice exposing the reality of #Brexit, the message is still getting through about what a screw up Brexit really is.

There's consistent polls showing a majority who think Brexit is going badly, and a lack of faith in government handling
4) however the assumption seems to be that any poll taken now would operate under existing conditions, but that wouldn't be the case. There'd be campaigns on both sides, and this time Remain would have the reality of the past 2 years as an advantage.
5) firstly, by the time we have a #PeoplesVote there'll probably be an agreement on both sides to be in some form of Customs Union. This takes away half the argument but in any case Liam Fox would be hamstrung by chlorinated chickens & failure to make any FTA progress whatsoever
6) on "immigration" (FoM) skillful pro-EU voices should be able to point to the whole "Turkey is joining" lie & the fall in FoM due to government hostile environment.

Non EU ethnic groups would now realise they were lied to on a "fairer" immigration system
7) on the £350 M, commentators could point to the promises of #Brexit leaders Vs the reality of the "divorce bill", as well as all of the institutions we now know about which we will continue to contribute towards. The £20b to implement "max Fac" would completely undermine £350m
8) on "taking back control" the government & brexiters could be atttacked for the rank incompetence & failure to agree a position on our relationship, and how they have embarrassed the UK.

"What kind of 'control' is this?"
9) any number of things that Brexiters promised wouldn't happen (loss of passporting, German car makers forcing a deal, cake & eat it) would be exposed (hopefully, this depends on the BBC doing its job for example) and virtually all of the main #Brexit players would be undermined
10) I could go on but you get the gist, virtually every argument from Leave could be shown in hindsight to be dead wrong, and we do have a slowing economy, as predicted, and a dragged out transition period to avoid further economic damage.
11) there would also be 2 important factors
Firstly, any MPs hiding behind "will of the people" could be asked "a new question is being asked, so what do *you* think? Is #Brexit a good idea?"

Tory Brexit zealots would be forced to attack their own party when asked on progress
12) the 2nd factor hopefully is that the pro remain campaign wouldn't be "led" by a confirmed Eurosceptic & a Tory leader more focused on party damage limitation than winning.

And UKIP have essentially disappeared into the Tory party
13) I'm not saying it would be easy, however all of the easy soundbites from Vote Leave would be shown as shallow & dishonest. Being in a customs union would cause a lot of #brexit trading swashbucklers to lose interest in the whole program.
14) and the Remain campaign could at last be a positive one of "look, this is a mess, and you were lied to by fools & chancers. Do we really want to be locked in this ridiculous process for 5-10 years, when it can all just go away tomorrow? Think of what we can focus on?"
15) "Fake news" would now have sunlight shone on it, as would dodgy funding. And I suspect a lot of the original players would have little appetite for going out & doing it all again, especially when they get old quotes played back
16) so, let's not assess where public opinion is now, but where it would be after a positive remain campaign & a hamstrung leave one.

And hopefully this time with Leaders committed to the fight

It would be different
17) ps. one thing holding up pro remain leaders is having to constantly say "I respect the vote" in any Brexit discussion
A new vote gives them the freedom to say "new vote, new mandate, fresh start" and to attack #Brexit without being accused of attacking "democracy"
18) this particularly applies to Labour "Remainers" who either have to defend Labour's shifting position or be seen as attacking Corbyn. They can never get going on a full throated support for Remain. A new #PeoplesVote allows them to break out
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