Thread by @khalidkarim

Read a long write-up condemning Gov for cancelling ECRL;
Premise is to spend an additional RM27B and complete the RM46B Gombak to KB Link.
Cancelling it...he presumes will cost RM20B in compensation.

Sounds logical?

Ok..some basic stuff.
ECRL is NOT a high speed rail~it hv a max design speed of 160km/hr..and actual average speed wud probably be about the same(or slightly) better than the West Coast Rail.
The railway is a SINGLE track Standard Gauge Railway...thus not compatible with existing

Without a link between Gombak to Port Klang the 25m tons land bridge (Kuantan Port to PT Klang vice versa) cargo becomes a big fat ZERO ie no more OBOR lah.
Thus...the RM9B Gombak to Port Klang Link becomes a necessity.

Add RM9B to the RM46B=RM55B.

Next...ECRL is a single track but the volume of pax and cargo trains is huge..4 to 5 times more than West Coast Railway.
Thus...trains hv to layby to get another to pass thru...travel times will be very slow.
Simply...have to add another track ie another RM10B
RM55B+RM10B=RM65B

Next...the RM65B hv not included land acquisition,interest during construction,overheads etc...so add another RM14B lah

RM65B+RM14B= RM79B

Can forego that RM2B extension to Wakaf Baru lah..

So...can't escape the RM79B cost if we continue with ECRL...right?

Thus,the premise that building that single track SGR railway by spending an additional RM26B is the wise decision~is dead in the water

Infra investment shud be planned based on long term forecast and not just looking a few years ahead

Next...we look at the possible compensation

Now..let's look at the actual work done.No work hv commenced between Gombak and Port Klang.Thus the work done is only the Gombak to KB stretch ie the RM46B.No work hv also commenced on trackworks,systems,M&E and Rolling stocks~only on infra works

Infra-works is about 60% of the RR46B ie about RM28B.How much of the RM28B ie earthworks,tunneling,bridges,stations hv been completed.The only works done are the temporary works eg access roads,kongsi & yards,plant & machinery mobilisation.
Design is in progress

So..essentially...only the prelims are in progress.And in any case wud not be more than 10% ie about RM4B max.
I doubt if total work done plus reasonable cost incurred will exceed RM5B.

But..Gov must rope in our top engineers,QS and Contract Law specialist to do the nego.

So..decision is quite easy anyway.
Spend RM46B for an incomplete system that will not be able to handle forecast pax & cargo traffic OR lose RM5B and avoid a total investment of the full system costing RM74B.

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