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Andrew Leach 🇨🇦 @andrew_leach
, 14 tweets, 4 min read Read on Twitter
In case anyone complaining about timelines around TMX is suggesting this would have been different under another govt, remember that Gateway, at application, expected construction to begin in Q3-2012 and to be in-service by 2016. They hadn't broken ground by Q4 2015 election.
In their initial application, they expected to be at commercial sanction by late 2012, with approvals in hand. Federal government approved the pipeline in June of 2014 - that's the starting point for all the detailed route hearings, not the end point for the regulatory process.
It was another year, to June 2015, before the appeals court ruled that the conservative government hadn't met the minimum standards for consulting on their GoC approval with First Nations. Odds at that point that the project could be turned around were thin...
But, as early as 2012, the government was already throwing Gateway under the bus. To quote @JamesMoore_org who described Enbridge's work on the project as a not being a model that: "any other company should follow if they want to do business in BC."
@JamesMoore_org And, the government essentially abandoned the file west of the Rockies. Have a look at video of the press conference when PMSH announced approval of gateway. Oh wait, there wasn't one. Check out video of senior cabinet ministers out pushing the project. Oh, wait, they didn't.
@JamesMoore_org Pipeline politics is hard. When it came to wearing I heart oil sands t-shirts and spouting ethical oil talking points or kicking sand in the face of environmental groups, conservative govt was all-in. The hard work on the ground to get a buildable pipeline approved? No.
CPC gov't did see pipes built - the Line 9 reversal was the most contentious and controversial - but mainlines to the west coast or across the US border after oil sands GHGs and other enviro effects became a major issue? No. There is zero evidence a CPC gov't could deliver TMX.
Remember that, in the case of Gateway, there were national protests and the pipeline hadn't even been approved. Mob the Mic and other efforts slowed the regulatory process. Aboriginal groups stood in staunch opposition. Faced with that, CPC gov't took it's ball and went home.
Eventual outcome was that Enbridge was left with a project with zero chance of getting built, and the Federal Court overturned the government's approval. The idea that a CPC gov't could, today, steamroll all that opposition is EXACTLY what they tried and failed to do before.
The LPC definitely did not make things easier by throwing NEB under the bus, promising an overhauled regulatory process they could not reasonably expect to deliver on required timelines, and other issues. That's for sure.
People forget that the NEB process is quasi-judicial - it's based on precedent, process and legal arguments as well as economic underpinning for the project. You can't start that over in months or paper over previous criticisms with a bit of process.
But, LPC took seriously one thing that PMSH never did on pipelines - they were willing to put political capital forward and sacrifice some of it to get a pipeline built in the face of opposition from their electoral base. This is what that looks ilke: cbc.ca/news/politics/…
Unfortunately, it's not been enough - the federal government can't bind the Courts, nor can it bind the provinces on all aspects of a major project. PMSH gov't saw the same thing when Premier Clark posted her 5 conditions.
I'm hopeful TMX gets built and I believe it will, but this posturing is the worst kind of schoolyard faux-bully 'let-me-at-em' attitude. "If only the teacher weren't here, I'd kick your ass," in the political arena. It's not becoming or convincing in the school yard, nor here.
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