Thread by @KirstyS_Hughes

Political Declaration:

Structure is as proposed by Barnier months back ie Economic Partnership, Security Partnership, Cooperation on Areas of Interest (research etc)

Big Question: Will this be 'Canada Dry' or 'Turkey Plus'
1.

'Ambitious, broad, deep, flexible' partnership means v little ie a free trade agreement (FTA) or customs union plus cooperation on law/justice, foreign policy, security, defence. There won't be frictionless trade,not same rights or obligs as w EU mship, integrity of EU's CU/SM 2.

So big hit to trade in goods & services given not frictionless borders, espec to services given aim for goods is no tariffs/quotas nor rules of origin checks - but will be regulatory checks; proposals for services - equivalence, 'ambitious' etc beyond WTO (not v ambitious) 3.

Build on withdrawal agreement's single customs territory 'obviates need for checks on rules of origin' - sounds like a customs union more than FTA;

Unicorns: para 26 "make use of..facilitative arrangments & technologies"
Determined to replace backstop w permanent arrangements 4

Withdrawal agreement allows for future relationship to replace backstop in whole or part - but does polit declarn mean this is via Turkey Plus (so will still be some regulatory GB/NI border checks/barriers) or Canada Dry ie FTA but minimise rules of origin checks + reg checks 5

If Canada Dry then harder border in Irish Sea, if Turkey Plus then little scope for indep UK trade policy (can do on services, where EU not got trade deals & need to neg access to 3rd country mkts where EU does have trade deals) 6

Level playing field provisions on state aid, comp, social & emp, envir, etc building on WA.
Aviation, roads, rail, maritime, civil nuclear, public proc, elec/gas etc agreements all to be sorted,
UK to assoc w EU medicines, aviation, chems agencies - & pot. align w rules
7.

Fisheries - WA stands so fisheries not within backstop customs union (except for NI effectively); Aim to establish new fisheries ag on 'access to waters & quota shares' in place to start at end of transition.

Mobility deal to do as free movement ends - full reciprocity 8.

Overall, Political Declaration makes v clear huge amount of work needed for UK to replace myriad of regulatory/cooperative structures & laws that being in EU currently provides.Replacements will be worse - either because create friction/less access or are same but no voice/vote 9

For Brexiters, May - presumably - will present this as Canada Dry (even if called Canada +++ - the pluses will be essentially for security coop). For Lab, SNP etc, May will be present it as Turkey Plus - you wanted customs union well here it is & regulatory alignment. 10

Either way, WA plus Political Declaration= Brexit as damaging as predicted. In Turkey Plus, UK wd have no indep trade policy (& so big democratic deficit), & whether Canada Dry or Turkey Plus will be lots of regulatory alignment so democ deficit there too. We cd just stay. Ends.

one additional comment: If Withdrawal Agreement backstop is 'Turkey Minus' & then if the new trade deal is essentially 'Turkey Plus' it cd be said to replace backstop but NI differentiation (in single mkt for goods, in Union customs code) wd stay - magic!