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FranchiseKF @FranchiseKF
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Week 2 CFB. Gonna go down the rotation and talk ACC and SEC:

GT @ USF (+3.5/63) Color me surprised by side and total here. Expected USF to be slight chalk but hasn't been the case. Total feels about a TD too high to me here but this is a very high variance game, IMO.
Not much to be gleaned from either team's Week 1 games against Elon and Alcorn State. I'll start with GT, I think they could be a candidate for improvement this year. I think the big upgrade was getting rid of Roof at DC and hiring Woody. Simplifying things is usually good.
Didnt' see GT week one but appears they are still trying to get Marshall to throw more and he's still throwing like the A-Back he played prior to QB. Earlier this week USF LB was asked about GT and he said, "Navy with athletes". Last time they played Navy, 52-45 win in 2016.
With amount of time the ball should be run between both teams and the frenetic pace of USF offset by the sluggish one of GT, it's one reason why I'm really feeling like a 7 TD total is a lot. I can make a case for it getting there rather easily, so I may stay sidelined & learn
GT has to do some rebuilding at the back and I could see Barnett having some success throwing it. I think that's where I see the biggest edge in the game, USF just more capable of balance. This game coming early in year, USF has prepared to face the option in spring and summer.
As I mentioned, still considering USF and under here. kinda got a weird feeling about it though so may just sit it out. Let's say 30-27 USF.
Duke @ Northwestern (-3/48.5) Think we got the wrong team favored here. Duke lambasted NW 41-17 last season. Similar to what I said last week, only few times Duke will not be at an athletic disadvantage this year, Army was one (34-14) and this is another.
Duke passing attack looked improved last week. Aaron Young's emergence as a big target and vertical threat are very good news from a team that has struggled with explosive passing plays past few years. Backs ran well and seems the early return on OL shakeup is positive.
Duke also holds edge on defense. Still think this has the potential to be a really tough team to score on, especially if the offense does their part and they arent at major deficits and playing with bad field position. Larkin was able to carve up Purdue but tougher sledding now
Looked like Thorson was on a "pitch count" last week and that was bizarre. Rarely a good thing for a team's offensive rhythym, so perhaps he is full go this week and they have more teeth. On defense, NW allowed nearly 8 YPP in the 1H before tightening up in 2H and taking it away.
If Purdue was a bit more judicious with the football on offense, they would have won that game. I dont think their QB rotation did them any favors either. I saw enough from Good Elijah that leads me to believe Jones can carve em up here. Took Duke here at 4.5, like em 31-20.
Mississippi St @ Kansas State (+8.5/54.5) The only thing that is going to keep me from saying too many things that get me on old takes exposed the old coach in manhattan. He’s won with worse. That being said, if week one is any indication. Stop Alex Barnes and this one over early
The Kansas State defense is going to have to really be heroic here. I just can’t foresee a scenario where Kansas State moves the ball efficiently or explosively to keep it real close. KSU QB room is a mess, little proven at WR, but Barnes is a hoss. Think this is straightforward
If Fitz wasn’t back from suspension then I would bet the under and also be more concerned as someone backing Miss st in this game and all others, but they should be able to run and pass this week, unlike last week with very inefficient, albeit explosive plays under Thompson.
Miss St defense should be up to snuff here and I think Moorhead will have seen enough on tape already with the cupcake week one that he exploits K State safeties and LBs in space. Let’s hope Kylin Hill gets a real workload here and pays off the CFF gamble.
I’ll say 34-20 Miss St. Got the spread this summer at -2.5, so sitting pretty on a TD of a value. If I was going to try backing them from now until game time, may wait to see if K St takes money with 8.5 being dead and possibility of 7 if you are vigilant in watching screen.
Nevada @ Vanderbilt (-8.5/63) Vandy just handled a more complete team than Nevada, 35-7. I think the Nevada offense is better equipped to do damage but this is still an SEC front going against a MWC OL and DL. That's just a massive edge.
Think Vandy has enough balance this year, particularly passing, to force Nevada to pick their poison. I look at Nevada last year against capable football teams:

31-20 loss to NW
37-24 loss to Toledo
45-7 loss to Wash St
41-21 loss to Fresno
41-14 loss to Boise
42-23 loss to SDSU
Nevada capable of scoring 20 here. While Vandy's defense melted down last year after whipping MTSU, I'm more confident that they have righted the ship this year and while they may not have the excellent defenses that Mason fielded in past, they should be improved from LY mess.
So then I look at what do I think Nevada can do on defense? Not much. They didn't do much week one against an over matched Portland State that leads to believe they are going to be able to keep a balanced, SEC team in check.
Secondary still appears dreadful and once they deicde they have to load up to stop the ground game, they get torched for big plays as PS did LW. Going back to those games I mentioned above, their road spreads were +24 (P5), +28.5 (P5), +7.5, +20, +17 and now they are +8.5?
I think them giving up something comparable in the high 30's mid 40's is likely here so they may need 30 here to cover the number. If the Vandy defense isn't improved, I guess it's possible, but I am not thinking that's likely.
I like Nev off this year, I was actually wanting to bet the over more than looking to back Nevada but they got the total right and spread wrong, IMO. When Nevada can, they will prob maul teams, like Missouri LY. Punish patsies - pedestrian against good teams. I'll say 42-20 Van
Fun side note: Boston's favorite college slot WR, McLane Mannix, was once a Vandy commit. They were wish-washy on if he was going to play corner or WR. Nevada was steadfast. Good choice, young man!
GA State @ NC State (-24.5/58) Went to bed last night w nointerest in the gm and woke up to the total steamed from 52.5 to 57. (Side note: there was some maniac out there late last night w deep pockets betting all sorts of nonsense.)
The 52.5 was still prob a touch too high for my liking but not enough to bet. Let's look at Georgia State week 1. Lucky to beat Kennesaw State 24-20. Held to 4.3 YPP. Now they are gonna move it on an upper-middle ACC defense?
Three defenses they faced last year that we use as baseline: Penn State 56-0 loss. Troy 34-10 loss. App State 31-10 loss. Let's be generous, NC State lost a ton of NFL talent, 10 points here. So at current number, pretty much asking Ga State to keep them sub-50.
Every team but one did that last year. I can also buy NC State offense improves this year. That being said, the team totals, using implied will be roughly 41-17. NC State getting to 41, I can dig it. Ga State getting to 17, I can't.
NC State held to 5.3 YPP against FCS tyrant, James Madison. 2.9 YPC by the backs. Think that is the area the staff points towards as needing to get straightened out this week - run the ball.
Game script should support it with a huge lead. LY, Ga St only let two teams rush for 200+, they were more than respectable and front 7 returns experience. Secondary could be an issue as they dont have anyonw who can guard Harmon and Meyers.
NC State gonna hit chunk pass plays. If they wanted to, they could prob get 50. Do they want to? Early kick, second lesser in a row, only thing fans wanna see is the new "Ice Dawg" unis! Host WVU next week, think the focus in 2H will be ground game and keep GSU off the board.
I went under 57 this morning but I missed the peak as a 59 came this AM and has since settled at 58. Expect we see a good bit of downward movement as we near kick. If people wanna bet over, just lay the points instead, at least that's what I'd do in that spot. 41-9
UNC @ ECU (+17/60) Really not a game I'm very interested in talking about. UNC was miserable on offense at Cal week one. Elliott starting ice cold and it appears the suspensions for UNC, particularly on OL, are going to potentially have bigger impact than I anticipated.
ECU couldn't run the football (surprise!) on NC At&T. While it's easy to look at that game and see it as a bad loss, NCATT is a really good lower level team so I'm not going to over react. ECU prob is who we thought they were, a team that is gonna throw it 65 times and lose.
I didn't see the game but ECU actually had a 28-15 FD edge, 382-269 yardage edge, but was -3 in TO. ECU held to 4.02 YPP ( ran 95 plays!) NCATT 60 plays at 4.48 YPP. Both teams ran less than 3 YPC. I don't really know what to think.
As down as I am on ECU, as a program, UNC's suspension took them from a team I wanted to back this summer to now I don't, at least not as 17 point road chalk. Upon further review, the total may even be a bit high here. Pace could kill it in a hurry but I could make a case for UN.
There is also the one thing you must remeber about ECU, they take ACC scalps.

2014: 28-21 beat VT
2014: 70-41 beat UNC
2015: 35-28 beat VT
2016: 33-30 beat NC St

There are also some bad beatings mixed in but weirder things have happened. I'll say 34-24 UNC.
UGA @ USCe (+9.5/57.5) I took USCe a couple different times this off-season in the futures market. Once at +11 and again +14.5. Was hoping this would be night game. One of the more underrated HFA's for big games, esp at night. Cashed the USCe over week one, being ahead of pace
but it appears the secret is out on their schematic changes. Offense will look more like an Ole Miss offense from Hugh Freeze than a traditional Muschamp. Have the skill talent to do it. They are going to really test the inexperience of the UGA defense.
Ask any honest UGA fan and they will tell you how much they hate trips to Columbia. I still don't know how good the USCe defense will be. I think the starting 11 are SEC level but the depth once attriton sets in is my concern. Good news, it's week two so wont be a factor.
Didnt get to learn much about UGA against Austin Peay. Imagine the offense is improved, particularly the passing attack, but defense takes a step back. Unsure how much. Prob more drastic now early in year than late once they get reps and gel. Not much else to add here.
Think USCe is very live here and they are built to keep that back door wide open with their passing game. I'll say UGA pulls it out but 30-24 final. There are still 10s out there id you like the dog but 9.5 on BM if you want the fav. Prob will be best price for fav you get.
Ark St @ Alabama (-35.5/65.5) Mentioned last week, but as a Bama fan, I prefer not to have action on the games. Had to make an exception this week. Took Over 59 here at open. I guess I knew the possibility of what this ofense could be under Tua but I needed to see it to believe.
Terrifying. My friend said this to me which was brilliant, "So weird looking at clips of our game and seeing a real live QB, not converted RB, isurance salesman, or a middle school math professor." I've actually never seen so many Bama WRs hit in stride.
It really is scary for the rest of CFB. Anyway, Herbie talked about it a bunch during broadcast as he gushed over Tua, 45-55 points may be the normal for Bama this year. They wasted a bunch of drives with Hurts and Jones and still hung a 50 burger on an ACC team.
This should be grim for Arkansas State. They like to operate with pace and that helps the over, whether they are scoring or not, it helps. I think the Bama secondary still has some work to do and Hansen will test it. Should be one of top G5 passing attacks.
Sleepy spot for Bama here but I think the over was too juicy not to take at 59. Only one trip up to P5 last year for Ark St ended 43-36 at Nebraska. Don't expect 38 but half that is within reason. 55-17 Bama
Clemson @ aTm (+12/54) Took under 57 here at open. Think both defenses are the clear strengths of the team. If Kelly Bryant starts and plays most of the game then I think this one could be a breeze but if Clemson gives Lawrence reps then I could see them hanging a bigger number
Ive seen enough of Bryant against good defenses and I think aTm has one of the better defenses that hasn't been talked about much this summer. Elko was a killer hire at DC and he inherited some players. Mond getting QB nod for aTm suprised me. He looked lost last yr as TrFR
Very talented player, particularly his ability to extend plays with his legs, and he's a good vertical passer. BIGGGG jump in class from Northwestern State to Clemson for him. Think we see some sizable regression, as we will with most offensive players against Clemson.
If Clemson elects to move with pace, shouldnt be as troubling because of the service academy pace Jimbo moves at. Aside from too many chunk plays or defensive scores, I don't see this playing into 50s. I'll go 30-16 Clemson.
Virginia @ Indiana (-6.5/51) I took over 52.5 at open. Over took some money and now the under took more. I don’t get it. Should be a game played with above average pace and a lot of skill talent on the field.
Based on line and total, people aren’t appreciating what Bryce Twerkins 🕺🏿 can do for this offense. Really opened things up last week against a traditional FCS power, Richmond. Couple years ago they lost to them 37-20 and just returned favor 42-13.
Also like the qb choice for Indiana so I think it’s reasonable to expect improvement from both offenses this season. Not particularly fond of their team on the OL so if things break down, pretty sure that’s where it’ll happen, per usual.
The good news for an over and Virginia is that the Indiana DL was not good against FIU. The offense really carried them. If you can’t get to a mobile QB like Twerk, he will make you pay. Also, these guys played last year and Indiana QB Ramsey went 16/20 and added a rushing TD.
I haven’t added Virginia yet but could add more to over 51 and/or add them at +7ish. I’ll go 31-30 Virginia in an upset.
Kentucky @ Florida (-13.5/50) I went under 53.5 here. Gonna be ground heavy game, lotta running clock and no major defensive difficiencies to be exploited. Straightforward handicap. Todd Grantham prob the best DC at CFB at turning out a defense in short order.
What makes this scarier, this isn't Louisville or Miss St, this Florida and he has ELITE defensive talent to start with. Secondary is ridiculous for Gators so can get creative with the front 7. Tough ask for whoever UK sides with at QB for the game.
Last season Grantham and Miss St held UK to 7 points - 4.8 yards per pass, 4.0 yatds per carry. Absolutely dominant. Good news, the UK defense has NFL players at every level so they can keep them in this dogfight. I buy UF defense being better but I'm far from ready to buy Franks
I was excited about him about 13 months ago and that was a mistake. I'm sure Mullen and new staff will help but I'm going to have to see it against an FBS opponent, and more than once. 27-13 Gators.
Arkansas @ Colorado State (+13.5/70) This side and total has been on skates. Opened Ark -6.5 and 65 on BOL and now the fav and over took the money. I was able to take Ark 6.5 at open. Originally made the total a bit lower than 70 but after further review, it seems good.
We now have two game sample for Col St. They've been shredded. Hawaii 8.4 YPP, 600+ yards, 43 points. Colorado 9.2 YPP, 600 yards, 45 points. Now we have another offense with comparable athletes and pace ready to pound CSU while down. Col St offense more potent than showed LW
They get Boddie and Kinsey back at RB which should help their quality but their OL has been so dreadful it prob doesn't matter, I dont think they can run on this front and they are gonna be down so fast they need not try. Just gonna turn into aerial show here, at altitude.
Mentioned it previously but Arkansas is better built to handle this transition on offense than they were credited with. CSU can either leave in their vets on defense and get roasted, or go with youth movement and hope talent trumps experience. Either way, this isnt get well game
Ark faced FCS foe LW with air raid principles and won 55-20. Held EIL to 4.1 YPP though so that was solid. They were fortunate to score 55, that was flukey, but I'm not sure how much better CSU defense is than a middling FCS program at this point.
How wrong was I about CSU? Not long ago I had Bobo as a legit candidate to land an SEC job. His inability to recruit and cultivate talent on the defensive side fo the ball is inexcusable and it will greatly limit his ceiling, may even cost him his job sooner than later.
40s seems like a realistic number for Arky here and I think CSU has the skill talent to cause problems, esp through air. I'll go with 44-30 Arky. Would pass on the game at current numbers if you didnt get in early on side or total.
Now the crossovers. Again, this is currently an immature market. Will mature more in 45 hours on Saturday AM. I'll post current numbers from 5dimes but know they can change 6-10+ points in a matter of minutes.
Towson @ Wake (-30/54.5) I have no idea. Don't care.
Holy Cross @ Boston College ( -43/55) No idea, don't care.
William & Mary @ VT (-37.5/48) This total was as low as 41. When should a CFB game be totaled at 41? Two instances:

1. Army/Navy
2. Never

I took the over 41 and have since come back on the under at 50. Took the Over 41 a few hours before VT played on Monday
Saw shortly thereafter that Bud Foster is in fact a wizard and realized Bill & Mary aint scoring here. Just comes down to how many does VT want to score? No idea, it's a guessing game. I'm fine with a nice middle opp on two independently good wagers, IMO. 45-0 VT
Wagner @ Syracuse (-41.5/66) How bout this total opening mid 50s? Danke. Wagner just saw Bowie State (google it, it's a real thing) go 30/47 passing for 365 yards a pair of TD and the QB ran for 84 (gross) more. Cuse off game where they scored 55 and looked pathetic doing so
Eric Dungey, Cuse QB, has already come out and said they plan to "annhilate". Proud passing offense made to look foolish last week, game indoors on the fast track, look out. 70-14 Cuse.
Southern Illinois @ Ole Miss (-29.5/65) Didn't spend much time on this one. Pattern last year tells us that Ole Miss runs up the stats on teams like this. No chance they can hang with a single OM backup WR, let alone one of Brown, metcalf, Lodge, Knox.
SIU showed off nice ground game against Murray State. I'm not bullish about the OM defense being any good so I can see how they could move it, even if they are going to be at decided disadvantage in trenches. Hung tight with Memphis last year in 44-31 loss. I'll say 56-20 OM
ETSU @ Tennessee (-37.5/51.5) Not sure. Want to try to learn a bit more about Tennesee here. Felt like lot of points at first blush and I dont know if ETSU is any better this year but they got whalloped on road many times last year. Prob should be same here. 48-10 Vols
Savannah State @ Miami (-54/61.5) Only one question, what is the moral ceiling for Mark Richt on points scored? Sav St should truly be illegal to schedule for P5 schools. They are the worst team you can face. Bloodlust. I don't know, 66-0 Miami? May just run the clock in 2H.
Indiana State @ Louisville (-44.5/67.5) Lost in the Tua show LW, Jawon Pass is going to be a very good QB for Ville. Offense gonna look different than Lamar's but this dude is a tank. Herbie or someone mentioned a Big Ben comp when he got rocked on blitz, stood tall and delivered
Bloodlust for Bobby P after embarassing loss. Could get ugly. A terrible Tennesee team beat ISU 42-7 last year. I am starting Ville as streamed D/ST in CFF. I'll say 59-10 Ville.
SELA @ LSU (-39.5/56.5) SELA almost pulled the massive upset of ULM last week as a 3 TD underdog. Had a FG blocked as time expired that would have sent it to OT? Good on them with the new staff or is the ULM defense trash again? Probably mixture of both.
Either way, SELA not scoring on this Louisiana team. I maintain that this LSU defense will be amongst the bnest in nation. Think Sunday validated that as much as one game can with Jalen Hurts cousin at QB. Just a matter of does LSU wanna work the passing game and get good lather?
I'll go something like 52-3 LSU.
Samford @ FSU (-35/54.5) I actually thin there could be some scoring here. Samford has a legit FCS QB, Devlin Hodges. FSU is going to want to pay back somebody after getting whipped liek that on TV. They are gonna be able to score as much as they want but Samford has offense
Last year UGA beat them 42-14 but their passing attack was pretty sharp, all things considered. 10 starters back for Samford on offense (I think) but some key losses on defense. I went over, I'll say 56-14.
Alabama State @ Auburn (-50.5/59.5) A State just went to OT with the Tuskeegee Airmen in week 1. No idea what to expect, really. Don't care. Auburn 51-3.

That will conclude our weekly program. If you have questions about other gm in other conf , I'll do my best to answer later.
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