So the big question after a Brexit trip to Salzburg has to be whether this is the crisis which finally turns UK Government cake stale, or whether as immediately suggested by the PM nothing has really changed - just a negotiating tactic. Thoughts - 1/ theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Today looks like a devastating critique of the UK Government's plan of Chequers and beyond - the economic relationship plan unacceptable to the EU, exacerbated by blundering attempts to appeal to Member States - culminating in the PM op-ed yesterday 2/
However the coming two months were always about the Withdrawal Agreement and the Northern Ireland border, and there is talk of UK proposals on regulatory checks which could unlock progress. That's the optimistic take 3/
The problem of course being that it is hard to think of a single UK government Brexit paper which has not been full of wishful thinking. Time is running short, and the chances are that continuing on the same path will lead to a bigger crisis 4/
What are the alternatives? The advocates of Canada style FTA are out in force saying today proves they are right. But that only happens if the UK accepts the Commission's Northern Ireland backstop, which DUP, PM, others have said unacceptable 5/
The PM's red lines rule out EEA or any evolution of Chequers in an acceptable direction to the EU. We are repeatedly told that there is no parliamentary majority for no-deal, and insufficient appetite for another public vote. Are we trapped? 6/
Any grounds for optimism would come from the PM / UK Government making changes to their approach e.g. drop the sci-fi borders or accept 10 yr time horizon, drop no-deal and say we'll ask for extension if we don't get a deal 7/
In other words somehow change the tone of negotiations, perhaps also being rather more open with friendly Member States, stop the aggressive briefing against the Commission, take some small steps to rebuild confidence 8/
Again it all seems so unlike any approach we have seen from the PM to date - and would be greeted with hostility by quite a number in her own party who regard the EU as being partly or wholly to blame for the whole situation 9/
It may be the EU will not respond to any change from the UK but they also want a deal for a number of reasons, and probably know the UK cannot just accept their current backstop. I suspect they have a compromise idea or two in reserve 10/
The optics of Conservative Party Conference are likely to be awful, and any development of a Labour position potentially important - the Commission will be watching carefully to see if it looks like the PM is likely to have a majority for any solution 11/
So in summary, Salzburg a definite setback, but not an inevitable step towards no-deal. Treated as a warning this could be the opportunity for some much needed change to UK gov. Without change though, the outlook is gloomy. 12/ ends
PS serious thanks to @bexin2d who provided much needed discussion and challenge. All views mine, but these are complex issues and robust discussion is needed. I hope UK and Commission are getting such challenge.
There's going to be a lot of interpretations in the days ahead of what happened - here's an updated Guardian article saying it was UK saying they couldn't do things quickly that caused the problems theguardian.com/politics/2018/…
Pessimistic @Peston - fwiw I agree change of approach from UK looks unlikely at this moment
Reason for optimism - if this politico story is correct the Commission does indeed have an extra compromise ready to roll on the Irish backstop - that would go a fair way towards assuaging UK concerns politico.eu/article/uk-and…
