1. I've debated posting this thread because it's seems kind of basic but I'll go ahead since I continue to see so much "muh we are all doomed" everywhere. As always think as you will.
This is what a political battle looks like.
There are many players in the political battle.
This is what a political battle looks like.
There are many players in the political battle.
2. Most of these players are on one of two teams. One team wants to get Kavanaugh confirmed. The other team doesn't want him confirmed.
3. Everyday each team suits up and fights the political battle. Some days one team wins big, some days they win small, and some days they lose skirmishes within the battle. Some days they do all three.
4. The team with the most wins will not necessarily reach their goal at the end. It matters on when the wins occur, how big the wins and if critical objectives and timelines were secured.
5. Each team has their own strategy, their own leaders, agents, double agents, foot-soldiers, intelligence staff, financiers, etc.
6. Neither team is going to quit until one or the other wins. This is conflict to the political death now. Neither side can walk away. One or the other will be victorious. There is no participation award.
7. It is also important to understand this isn't the same political battle as the tax cuts, or omnibus, Obamacare or the Wall. Each political battle is in it's own way unique. While many of the players, ploys and tactics remain the same in many cases the battle is still unique.
8. Now with all of the above in mind the biggest thing to keep aware of is there are TWO teams this time. Unlike much of the Obama years where there was one team which pretended to be two.This battle has two very different teams.
9. Another important fact to keep in mind is that like a game of chess each side will make a move in reaction to the the other moves.
10. One final point to highlight. Nothing happens in a vacuum. The moves one team makes has to take into account the possible counter attacks the other team will or have made.
11. Just a quick status report on where the battle currently is. Trump and the GOP are currently winning. The Dems/left are in a very unfavorable position but they are not out of it yet. If you are the type that likes a score it's 48-47.
12.There are 5 pieces currently stuck behind the GOP lines that seem to want to move to the Dem lines. The objective now for the GOP is keep them & the objective for the Dems is to give them covering firing to come over or delay the GOP from being able to use them
13. The GOP only needs 2 out of the 5. It would be great to get all 5 but we only need 2 more votes for final victory.
14. So the GOP are bending over backwards to keep these 5, while the Dems are going all out to either open up the lines ( accusations, bribes, friendship reminders etc) or give enough covering to delay (FBI, crying in elevators, office sit ins, bribes, phones calls etc.).
15. As long as the 5 don't have cover when the vote is called, they will most likely vote to confirm. The longer the delay the less likely of a vote, the more accusations the more they will vote no.
16. So the GOP are ripping up the cover point by point. The Dems were unable to stop the vote Friday and Kavanaugh/Ford provided Flake with no cover so he had to vote Yes.
17. The Dems countered with a request for FBI seeking to provide cover. Flake, Collins and Murcowski said it was good enough cover for them. So the GOP had no choice but to delay and begin to dismantle that cover.
18. The Dems are trying to get the cover back with leaks of the limited scope/time etc so far no dice.
19. While that skirmish is going on the GOP destroyed 3 of the 5 accusations of the dems, ripping up more cover. The Dems are running out of cover. They will make more no doubt.
20. But the cover is getting weaker. Again this isn't the Obama years where one team pretended to be two. And No the players didn't morph into MAGA people. However, very powerful players have joined the battle and placed their political reputations/capital on the line.
21. The goal of confirmation is wanted by these people. They aren't play acting like they do during a debt ceiling or amnesty battle.
22. The battle is reaching a climax. This week should see it's completion one way or the other. As it is the GOP is in the stronger position. This is shown in the fact the 2 Dem red senators have not said they will vote no. Can the GOP still lose? Yes.
23. However, with Trump and Mitch working together, I like the GOP chances. The main battles this week will be to rip up the FBI cover and hold two votes. Do those 3 things and ultimate victory can be had. The Dems goal is to produce more cover and delay.
24. Finally, this is what a political battle looks like. Both sides are still in the fight. We aren't doomed. In fact the history of the last 2years of Trump with these battles should make one confident we have a very good chance of victory.
25. Understand there is a chance we can still lose and support the battle as best as possible. Going around crying "muh we are all doomed" doesn't help anything and in fact just spreads defeatism.
