Here's a little something for anyone who buys the fairy tale that Kavanaugh willing will hurt GOP in the midterms because Dems are super furious and Republican voters will go back to sleep.
One problem with the "GOP loses by winning" thesis is that losers in a huge all-consuming battle like this have a tough time getting donations or sustaining the kind of enthusiasm that actually gets people to vote.
Media constantly mistakes the easy, paper-thin "fury" of online commenters and poll respondents for actual voting energy. Voting is harder than retweeting some idiot who typed "KAVANAUGH IS A RAPIST" 20 times.
Defeat is demoralizing, especially when Dems and their media went 110% all-in on the Kavanaugh smear. They doubled down, over and over again. It's really dispiriting to watch the other side rake in that many chips after you fold.
It will be even more demoralizing if Kavanaugh gets a couple of wobbly Dem votes, just as it would have taken a lot of wind out of Republican sails if he went down because a couple of wobbly Repubs voted no. (Which could still happen, although it looks unlikely right now.)
The shift in Republican enthusiasm due to Kavanaugh doesn't look like a flash-in-the-pan burst of energy. It's more like a seismic shift, cold fury hardening into resolve. It should TERRIFY Democrat consultants.
Remember, Republican voters don't blow off steam with foolish theatrics and frenzied street protests. They don't have 95% of the media feeding them hate porn. They vent by voting.
And what are swing voters supposed to make of all this? Democrats just wasted their time with weeks of hysteria that blotted out all other news. They launched a relentless smear campaign against a guy who got confirmed anyway. They demanded investigations that came up dry.
It's ANNOYING, and you really don't want to go into the weird political environment of a midterm election with persuadable voters annoyed at you, viewing your party as irresponsible hysterics who rolled the dice on a cheap trick and lost.
I know Democrats don't want to hear this, but from a pure clash of personalities standpoint, Kavanaugh comes off as far more relatable to people who aren't rabid partisans than Ford and her ever-changing memory.
You Democrats don't understand how much middle-class anxiety has developed in this country about becoming the target of a politically correct witch hunt. People identify with Kav after what you put him through. "I'd be angry too," they think.
And one other thing: yes, the fiery heat of this story will die down over the next few weeks. Events will occur. The news cycle will roll on. Kav's confirmation will feel like the end of a story people were growing exhausted with.
And what will people see when the fires of this controversy finally burn low, halfway to Halloween? A roaring economy setting records one after the other, Key Democrat constituencies doing better than they ever have under Dem leadership.
People are going to turn away from the Democrats' partisan circus and see the very reality you desperately needed them to forget about... and you've exhausted your ability to distract them, discredited your media just when you needed it most. /end
Addendum: You can bet that if GOP voter enthusiasm flags a bit between now and Election Day, those voters will see Dems plastered all over the news calling them alt-right rape apologists and they'll perk right up. Dems won't LET them forget this. They can't.
