Profile picture
Jon Worth @jonworth
, 9 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
I think we can now say with certainty that no #Brexit deal May brings from Brussels commands a majority on her side of the house.

Any controls / backstop in Irish Sea - DUP opposes. There are 10 DUP MPs.

Any attempt to keep the UK in a Customs Union with the EU: hard core Brexiters in the ERG oppose. There are 40 odd of them.

So Theresa May’s calculation then is as follows: can she get enough MPs from other parties (essentially Labour) to make up the shortfall?

The arithmetic would suggest ditching the DUP, tacking towards the ERG position, would leave her with the smallest shortfall. *But* Labour’s positions are miles from the ERGs and May would be playing with fire re. Irish border.

If instead she backed the DUP, and softened the government’s Brexit position as far as a permanent UK-EU Customs Union, May might attract some Labour support - but enough to outweigh the ERG MPs voting against her.

So - at present - I conclude there’s no Withdrawal Agreement with a majority in the House of Commons.


I can see no way to make the Commons arithmetic work.

This leads the UK towards No Deal first, then to panic, then to political crisis.

It’s going to be a bumpy autumn.

Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Jon Worth
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!