Thread by @jonworth

I think we can now say with certainty that no #Brexit deal May brings from Brussels commands a majority on her side of the house.

Any controls / backstop in Irish Sea - DUP opposes. There are 10 DUP MPs.

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https://twitter.com/tommctague/status/1050426052584062979

Any attempt to keep the UK in a Customs Union with the EU: hard core Brexiters in the ERG oppose. There are 40 odd of them.

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So Theresa May’s calculation then is as follows: can she get enough MPs from other parties (essentially Labour) to make up the shortfall?

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The arithmetic would suggest ditching the DUP, tacking towards the ERG position, would leave her with the smallest shortfall. *But* Labour’s positions are miles from the ERGs and May would be playing with fire re. Irish border.

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If instead she backed the DUP, and softened the government’s Brexit position as far as a permanent UK-EU Customs Union, May might attract some Labour support - but enough to outweigh the ERG MPs voting against her.

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So - at present - I conclude there’s no Withdrawal Agreement with a majority in the House of Commons.

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Stalemate.

I can see no way to make the Commons arithmetic work.

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This leads the UK towards No Deal first, then to panic, then to political crisis.

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It’s going to be a bumpy autumn.

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