As things stand there are two key options for the PM
- continue as planned & try to get deal through Parliament
- accept there will be no deal so immediately increase govt planning
In both cases the govt will have to go to parliament, I've set out no deal process below👇1/
- continue as planned & try to get deal through Parliament
- accept there will be no deal so immediately increase govt planning
In both cases the govt will have to go to parliament, I've set out no deal process below👇1/
EU Withdrawal Act says 3 prospects for no deal:
1) parly votes down the deal
2) PM announces that no deal can be reached by 21 Jan
3) 21 Jan arrives without a deal
In whichever scenario a minister has to make a statement saying what the govt plans to do next 2/
1) parly votes down the deal
2) PM announces that no deal can be reached by 21 Jan
3) 21 Jan arrives without a deal
In whichever scenario a minister has to make a statement saying what the govt plans to do next 2/
But Parliament will likely want to influence this process (e.g. extend article 50, second referendum) - because it is still unlikely there is a majority in the House for no deal
I think there are three ways that parliament could try and do this 3/
I think there are three ways that parliament could try and do this 3/
Firstly, under the EU Withdrawal Act the minister must move a motion in neutral terms to say parly has 'taken note' of govts plans
In theory, this would prevent parly from tabling any amdts 4/
In theory, this would prevent parly from tabling any amdts 4/
BUT (as @instituteforgov explains here instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…) there could be situations where the relevant Standing Order is 'disapplied' so that amdts could be tabled, although the motion would not be binding it would carry political weight 5/
The second option is to use opposition days - or backbench business time - to table a motion expressing views on what the govt should be doing instead of what it has planned - but as @DrHannahWhite points out these are also not binding 6/
The final route is to try and amend other #Brexit legislation - the Trade Bill has gone MIA but it will be needed for a no deal
Other legislation is also likely necessary for no deal - amdts could be tabled to add certain conditions to the commencement of those bills 7/
Other legislation is also likely necessary for no deal - amdts could be tabled to add certain conditions to the commencement of those bills 7/
Of course there is still time for *a lot* to happen between now & deal / no deal
Definitely follow @cath_haddon for all things Tory party leadership contests, confidence motions in Parliament & General Elections: /ENDS
Definitely follow @cath_haddon for all things Tory party leadership contests, confidence motions in Parliament & General Elections: /ENDS
