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au ng @athein1
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NV update 10/24 1030 pm. Some rural data from day 5 still missing. Dem lead at 5100, but should come down to around 4500 when the rurals are in,
1020am 10/25 update. Dem lead, after rural counties posted, is down to about 3800, just like 2 days ago. Remarkable!!! Full data to follow
Dem lead now, after 5 days, is 3910, with 1735 absentee ballots from Nye country to be counted. So, actual lead is more like 3200. I predict Dem lead to be under 10k after 2 weeks. GOP wins!!!
At this point in 2016 Dem lead was about 20k. At the end of 2 week early voting, Dem lead was over 50k in 2016 Trump lost by 27k only. At this rate, Dem lead after 2 wks will be under 10k. Dems underperforming by 40k plus
As predicted, the Dem lead now in NV Early Voting is 3243 after 5 full days. Compare that to about 18 to 20k at this point in 2016. That's about 83% down in Dem lead in NV early vote.
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FL EV update 7:30 am, 11/6/18 (ED) --- I'm pleasantly surprised. D lead has actually gone down by 2k to 22353. 2 days ago i conservatively said it might reach 30k. The reason for this is very reassuring for Rs, which is VBM actually improved since yesterday, contd.....
contd. In '16, presumably due to VBMs, Ds gained 8.4k on the last day. VBM actually netted 449 for Rs since yest. This is similar to the overall trend where Rs outperforming '16 by 50-70k on each day of EV. It ends with an exclamation point of 74k better for R since '16. contd
contd -- In terms of percentages, Rs are at 82.44% of '16 EV whild Ds at 80.26. All this improvement, I believe, is suggestive of enthusiasm advantage for Rs, opposite of what MSM has been claiming and wishing. Rs must GO VOTE and I'm sure they will. Chalk FL up for an R win
Read 5 tweets
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1/ State of the Midterms ---- Mere hours to go before what would become one of the most participated and most consequential midterms ever. Here are my observations. There aren’t that many MSM polls.
2/ Whatever polls they have, half or so are for lopsided blue ones like NY sen., CT sen or CA sen where 2 no R is running. The MSM rhetoric also is beginning to hedge such as thedailybeast.com/democrats-pond…

theguardian.com/us-news/2018/n…

And

politico.com/story/2018/11/…
3/ MSM has been trying to influence the election more blatantly than ever. They say Ds have enthusiasm edge. The voters are getting smarter though. Early voting data refutes MSM’s claims. They then said “Oh, we can’t compare to ‘16.
Read 7 tweets
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FL EV update 7:24 pm 11/5 --- "souls to the polls" data is in. D lead now at 24689. When panhandle data comes in from today + contd absentees statewide, I conservatively estimate D lead to be at 30k or less, as mentioned last night. As long as Rs go vote, they win, hands down
For more of what to expect, pls see my thread from last night.
Sorry about the wrong table. Here's the correct one.
Read 4 tweets

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Day 15 of Bates v Post Office about to begin. Stick around for live tweets from a confused hack who is beginning to understand relational, implied, express, breach and the contra proferentem principle of construction. We can all learn together from 10.30am...
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NV Early Vote: GOP had a good day in the rural counties, but Dems had their best day yet in Clark County (Vegas) where over 31k voted. Dems expanded their ballot lead in Clark to 10.18% & the Clark/Washoe firewall is now over 38k. Clearing the 40k mark seems likely at this point.
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There are also indications that more younger folks are participating in this week's EV and that the Dems may be doing a better job than the GOP of not cannibalizing their e-day vote. That won't be confirmed until e-day.
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#UPDATE on Smile Communications service outage. At an arbitration meeting between Smile Communications & Eaton Towers held at UCC, the meeting resolved administrative issues that recently affected the delivery of communication services to Smile customers.
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Day 2 starts in Pyongyang but some progress made on Day 1? Yonhap says "working groups" have formed to discuss key issues of denuclearization. Well, if so then the so-called progress is mainly procedural, not substantive. But a step forward nonetheless
yonhapnews.co.kr/politics/2018/…
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