Thread by @GodlessNZ

(1) #JT610 was a Lion Air flight today with 189 pax that crashed 13 minutes after take-off from Jakarta, Indonesia for a domestic destination one hour away. Clear weather, daylight, experienced pilot, fairly new plane. Had requested & was granted permission to return to airport.

(2) This map & speed/altitude data, combined with other info already available suggests a few things. For the first few minutes everything was normal. It appears a mechanical issue may have occurred, prompting the pilot to request permission to return.

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1056733416102789120

(3) It appears the pilot increased altitude & went out over the sea, to give himself a higher margin for error while he prepared to dump fuel for an emergency landing? Standard protocol. I'm not ruling out non-mechanical causes this early on, but it does look that way.

(4) The plane was a Boeing 737-800 MAX, an updated, more fuel-efficient version of Boeing's workhorse single-aisle jet. The first 737 MAX jets were introduced into service in 2017. Budget carrier Lion Air took delivery of the aircraft, made in 2018, on Aug 13. (Source below)

(5) This media outlet has pretty good information. I relied on it a lot during the Thai cave rescue operation earlier this year:

channelnewsasia.com/news/lion-air-…

(6) Debris such as personal items have been recovered from the area. In some ways it's fortunate that it's just offshore, 30-40 feet deep. That will make it easier to investigate and find out what happened. Hopefully the remains can be recovered for the families.

(7) The plane took off at 6.20am local time, which was 7.20pm EDT.

Indonesia has a poor aviation safety record, and so does Lion Air:

channelnewsasia.com/news/lion-air-…

(8) Indonesian rescue officials said in the last few minutes that they have recovered some human remains. Sad.

reuters.com/article/us-ind…

(9) When I say mechanical issue, I don't mean worn out parts (it's a new plane), I just mean, we can rule out weather, rookie pilot etc. I never jump to the conclusion of foul play unless the more likely causes have been ruled out. Occam's Razor.

(10) Correction: In tweet (6) I said the water was 30-40 feet deep, it is actually 30-35 meters deep (98 to 115 ft). Which is still more feasible for recovery of evidence than a lot of air crashes are.

reuters.com/article/us-ind…

(11) In April, Lion Air "announced a firm order to buy 50 Boeing 737 MAX 10 narrowbody jets with a list price of $6.24 billion. It is one of the U.S. planemaker’s largest customers globally."

From Reuters story above.

(12) The destination airport was in a tin-mining region and "at least 23 government officials, four employees of state tin miner PT Timah and 3 employees of a Timah subsidiary were on the plane." -Reuters

(13) The 20 government officials had been in Jakarta, the capital, for a finance ministry event. theguardian.com/world/live/201…

Also on board were 7 Bangka Belitung Regional People's Representative Council members & 3 high and national court judges. Cited in: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lion_Air_…

(14) The fact that government officials, politicians, & judges were on the flight makes my antennae twitch a little. On the one hand, a 6.20am Monday flight out of a capital city is bound to have such people on board as a matter of course. No big deal.

(15) OTOH, there are terrorist groups active in Indonesia, and Lion Air is the second largest customer of Boeing, a flagship American company. This aircraft is cutting edge.

IDK. I hate speculating early on. I gotta force myself to be patient and wait for info.

(16) Lion Air's company slogan is "We make people fly." As a PR analyst, that is a terrible slogan, bc it rhymes with "We make people die." Granted, it won't have originally been designed in English, but still. A bit of a no-brainer.