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Peter Foster @pmdfoster
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Where former ECJ judge @FrDe2059 Franklin Dehousse accuses EU of “strategic myopia” over #brexit - by forcing backstop into A50 and putting short term defensive interests over long term relationship. /1

linkedin.com/pulse/sun-tsu-…
Makes point that appoints @MichelBarnier allowed Commisson to capture process and member states to be defer and deflect difficulties.

And argues backstop as fundamentally unnecessary - but now a rod for everyone’s back /2
Doesnt spare UK political class for utterly feckless handling of the process /3
But now argues both sides need to compromise sharpish or we’ll end up ina very bad place. (Essentially EU needs to recognise backstop is a false formulation and needs to be completely reconceived even at this late hour)

Or we’ll all pay the price. 4/ends
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So seems point 1 is an extension/elucidation of what @DLidington told #r4today on Dec 14.

FWIW am told by Brussels sources this is now focus of UK 'ask' on reassurances/ clarifications. To set clear aspiration date for trade deal to avoid backstop /1

@DLidington Which as @DavidHenigUK quickly pointed out is, to put it mildly, ambitious. /2

@DLidington @DavidHenigUK This is not least because even if you think a 'quick and dirty' deal is doable on some aspects (you hear some discussion of this) the UK would STILL need to know what it wanted.

And as the Political Declaration makes painfully clear, it doesn't know. Or cannot agree rather. /3
Read 20 tweets
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Has everyone read the Irish 'no deal' Contingency Action Plan?

Really don't bother. It's one of the most vacuous documents I've ever read. Comically bad. 1/Thread

merrionstreet.ie/MerrionStreet/…
I think there might only be one new fact in it - which is the number of new lorry bays being planned at Dublin and Rosslare ports....but that's pretty much your lot. /2

/2
The rest is just a blizzard of working groups and officialese....here's my favourite three paras.

Basically reads like an end-of-year internal report by the office junior telling his superiors how many boxes they've ticked /3
Read 8 tweets
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Fire at my Brussels this AM. Awoke from bad #brexit dream to klaxons and smell of smoke. Evacuated to lobby where there is coffee mercifully.
Belgian firefighter arrives with lighted ciggy clamped between lips.
Water deployed in large quantities. Pouring from lift shaft.
Read 3 tweets

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1) Looking in the tea leaves - where's Labour going post #Brexit?
Predictions in these bizarre times are a fool's activity but what the hell

After all the "no deal" scares the chances are reasonable that May will eventually compromise on a Deal for Brexit & get it past her party
2) of course it won't be a good deal (all #Brexit deals are bad) but it will likely be a fudge that looks on the surface to be acceptable. In fact it might not be a million miles from Labour's idea of a deal.

And it won't be good for the UK, just less bad than no deal
3) May will proclaim the "union of customs" & "market of singles" a victory, and the EU will let her, because they don't buy the Express and don't care if she puts lipstick on a pig by calling a slow defeat a victory
Read 8 tweets
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#Brexit *Thread*

To clarify, I am remain, but I feel a 2nd ref is monumentally risky & perhaps dangerous:-

1. Polls haven't changed much, result could easily be the same
2. Another campaign of hate will embolden the far right
3. If remain win. Leavers will demand another vote
4. Chaos & unrest are likely whatever the result, possibly violence too

What happens if it's still 'Leave'? Picture the chaos, square one. You're simply allowing the Tories more time to fail to come up with a solution. Every day that continues people in this country will suffer
What if it's 'Remain'? Leavers will, with some justification, query why this vote is more valid than the first. This has the potential to cause a constitutional crisis.

People can say 'we know the facts now' all they like, that will not placate millions of angry voters.
Read 11 tweets
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EU diplomats shrug at what they view as U.K. hysteria over Canada+ or Chequers #Brexit debate. The EU says the choice was never the UK’s alone 1
EU viewsChequers as a U.K. government position. Not an end in itself. Brussels aim: to navigate between Chequers and EU red lines.. 2
Accusation I often hear in Brussels is that U.K. Brexit negotiators are fine wordsmiths but that there’s often little meaning behind the words 3
Read 19 tweets
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1. Our current thinking is that the Chequers plan is totally unworkable. It is impractical and incompatible with EU and international law. The EU will reject it - but not immediately. It will use the time to plan for a no deal #Brexit
2. The general feeling, thanks to the propaganda of the Tory right is that the proposal is about as far as the UK can bend. This is odd because the proposal is not entirely dismiliar to some of the nonsense cooked up by pro-Brexit think tanks. Mrs May cannot win.
3. Mrs May could even adopt their alternative plans with some adjustments and the ultras would shift the goalposts again. They would cry betrayal at any concession. They are unappeasable. There is no deal they will support because they do not want a deal.
Read 20 tweets
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#Brexit 1
Cadbury moved factory 2 Poland 2011 with EU grant.
Ford Transit moved 2Turkey 2013 with EU grant.
Jaguar Land Rover recently agreed 2 build a new plant in Slovakia with EU grant, owned by Tata, same company who trashed our steel industry & emptied workers pension funds.
#Brexit 2
Peugeot closed its Ryton (was Rootes Group) plant and moved production to Slovakia with EU grant.
British Army's new Ajax fighting vehicles to be built in SPAIN using SWEDISH steel at the request of the EU to support jobs in Spain with EU grant, rather than Wales.
#Brexit 3
Dyson gone 2 Malaysia, with EU loan. Crown Closures, Bournemouth (Was METAL BOX), gone 2Poland with EU grant,employed 1,200.
M&S manufacturing gone 2far east with EU loan.
Hornby models gone. In fact all toys & models gone from UK along with patents all with EU grants
Read 28 tweets
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1/ Thread: Here are my 12 thoughts on #Brexit. We are at half-time in Art50 process. Departure UK from EU now exactly 12m away. Right moment to take stock and list a few backward- and forward-looking thoughts. (You can also read the full blog-post here: delorsinstitut.de/en/all-publica…)
#1: When the UK voted leave, many said the EU would be weakened. Today it is clear that the contrary is true: it’s the UK not the EU that has been weakened by Brexit.
#2a Whatever people say, it would have been possible for Britain to change its mind about Brexit. Many political decisions, even after referenda, have been reversed in many countries.
Read 18 tweets

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