1) Looking in the tea leaves - where's Labour going post #Brexit?
Predictions in these bizarre times are a fool's activity but what the hell
After all the "no deal" scares the chances are reasonable that May will eventually compromise on a Deal for Brexit & get it past her party
Predictions in these bizarre times are a fool's activity but what the hell
After all the "no deal" scares the chances are reasonable that May will eventually compromise on a Deal for Brexit & get it past her party
2) of course it won't be a good deal (all #Brexit deals are bad) but it will likely be a fudge that looks on the surface to be acceptable. In fact it might not be a million miles from Labour's idea of a deal.
And it won't be good for the UK, just less bad than no deal
And it won't be good for the UK, just less bad than no deal
3) May will proclaim the "union of customs" & "market of singles" a victory, and the EU will let her, because they don't buy the Express and don't care if she puts lipstick on a pig by calling a slow defeat a victory
4) but what next for Labour? They can't really vote down a deal that looks a lot like their own ideas (at least on paper), so they'll vote with the Tories.
In the short term there might even be a small economic bounce, as people react with relief.
In the short term there might even be a small economic bounce, as people react with relief.
5) of course over time this fudged deal will be a drag on the UK, slowing growth & leaving us as a 3rd nation on our own continent.
But most leavers won't care, the details of Brexit deals are boring & of little interest, they'll have won.
Remainers of course will care...
But most leavers won't care, the details of Brexit deals are boring & of little interest, they'll have won.
Remainers of course will care...
6) they'll remember the march, and the 150 CLP calls for a #peoplesvote, and they'll recognise the deal Corbyn enabled for what it actually is, a loss of opportunities for the UK. And sufficient numbers won't forgive.
7) and that'll be it for Corbyn & Labour, for 10 years or more. Tory voters will choose to believe the Tories delivered a victory, Labour voters will see how Labour were asleep at the wheel during the great con trick.
All the things Labour could have done? Won't happen
All the things Labour could have done? Won't happen
8) May has been working towards a fudge which appears acceptable to Leavers and the nutters in her party. If she pulls it off it'll be bad in reality for the country, but for Labour as well, who will be, as they are now, just the observers on the sidelines in these events
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