Big early vote came in yesterday in Clark County, Nevada. Washoe also put a chunk up. Reminder: In 2012, when Dean Heller was able to hold on, he won indies by 20 points, 53 to 33, while Romney only by 7 points. He will need retail pol indy numbers this time, too.
Putting aside the narratives for a second, if you were Dean Heller, you'd have to feel much better about the EV+ABs net change this year vs. 2012.
Updated: 11/3/2018 12:00 a.m.
In-Person Early Vote
D=97,343
R=86,560
NP=53,184
Absentee Ballots
D=10,218
R=11,379
NP=5,312
Updated: 11/3/2018 12:00 a.m.
In-Person Early Vote
D=97,343
R=86,560
NP=53,184
Absentee Ballots
D=10,218
R=11,379
NP=5,312
Actually folks. Follow along with this. I want to show you how small adjustments can swing a projection because I want you to take that into consideration when you read us, or other projections. I will show you how Dean Heller could actually have a small lead right now.
Two tweets up the thread is the EV+AB breakdown. Forget comparisons for a second. Let's do some basic math using a few assumptions. 1. 90% base support. 2. Exclude 3rd parties for simplicity. 3. Historic indy vote shares in Nevada. Let's start with the indy vote allocation...
Donald Trump won indies in Nevada, 53 to 37. Mitt Romney only by 7, 50 to 43, while Dean Heller won them 53 to 33 in 2012. Let's give Ms. Rosen Mrs. Clinton's indy vote share. And let's give Mr. Heller his and Trump's historic indy vote share. Again, for simplicity, no 3rds...
Total Indy EV+AB votes = 58,496. Given historic vote shares, 31,003 go to Heller in this exercise, while 21,644 go to Ms. Rosen. Assuming 90% base support, Heller has a total 88,145 partisan votes juxtaposed to 96,805 votes for the challenger. Next, let's do some simple math.
🗳️Heller
Base: 88,145
Indy: 31,003
Total" 119,148
🗳️Rosen
Base: 96,805
Indy: 21,644
Total: 118,449
119,148
118,449
---------
000,699 + Heller
Again, this exercise assumes 90% base support; historic indy allocation (favoring Rosen); and, no 3rd parties. Given ED vote...
Base: 88,145
Indy: 31,003
Total" 119,148
🗳️Rosen
Base: 96,805
Indy: 21,644
Total: 118,449
119,148
118,449
---------
000,699 + Heller
Again, this exercise assumes 90% base support; historic indy allocation (favoring Rosen); and, no 3rd parties. Given ED vote...
Given ED vote, it would indicate Dean Heller would not only win, but he'd win by a margin much closer to @EmersonPolling than others. Again, though, I'm excluding 3rd parties for simplicity. But you can see how damn close it really is. I don't deal in narratives. I deal in math.
And I will update this after the everything trickles in just so you can see basic math longhand.
Clark total just updated: 48,833. Washoe posted 13,187. When the rest of rural fills in, I'll update using the same exact assumptions.
Looking at Washoe EV+AB, and everyone should notice how much better Dems are doing in that particular county. In 2016, it was R+1,656. It's now D+1,141 after morning update. In Clark, it's +29,216 for Ds, down from +33,525 in 2016. We've seen this same thing in other states, too.
Nevertheless, again, for simplicity, here's why we're going to immediately look at the estimated indy vote margin in Nevada on Election Day and see whether the raw vote verifies it. It'll tell us much re: what the spreads need to be etc. ppdnews.us/rQGEesT #NVSen
