We've seen Arizona indies flirt with the idea of voting for Democratic candidates statewide, only to swing back in the final stretch. Sinema needs a huge margin. It would be the first time since 2008, when Obama won them by just 51 to 46. He went on to lose them to Mitt Romney.
Obama went on to lose AZ indies to Romney by nearly the same margin he had previously carried them against McCain, 51% to 45%. Trump carried indies in AZ, 47% to 44%. Flake won them by just 46% to 45%.
But for Sinema to overcome that early vote lead, considering what vote is left on the table, she would need a historic margin no Democrat has received among indies AND a monster turnout that favors Democrats. Judging by the data, there's no such evidence she'll get it.
There will soon be a write-up with details. But for #AZSen, 2/3 of our modeling favors Martha McSally. The race slipped further from Sinema as indies decided. Watch that margin come Election Day. Hopefully they roll out the new system without any quirks.
The one that does give Sinema enough, would assume what I referred to in a previous tweet. That's a margin among indies no Democrat has posted, not even the only one to win them since 2008 (Barack Obama), and surge in ED GOTV comparable to normal net gain. Think that over.
