Profile picture
Richard Baris @Peoples_Pundit
, 5 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
We've seen Arizona indies flirt with the idea of voting for Democratic candidates statewide, only to swing back in the final stretch. Sinema needs a huge margin. It would be the first time since 2008, when Obama won them by just 51 to 46. He went on to lose them to Mitt Romney.
Obama went on to lose AZ indies to Romney by nearly the same margin he had previously carried them against McCain, 51% to 45%. Trump carried indies in AZ, 47% to 44%. Flake won them by just 46% to 45%.
But for Sinema to overcome that early vote lead, considering what vote is left on the table, she would need a historic margin no Democrat has received among indies AND a monster turnout that favors Democrats. Judging by the data, there's no such evidence she'll get it.
There will soon be a write-up with details. But for #AZSen, 2/3 of our modeling favors Martha McSally. The race slipped further from Sinema as indies decided. Watch that margin come Election Day. Hopefully they roll out the new system without any quirks.
The one that does give Sinema enough, would assume what I referred to in a previous tweet. That's a margin among indies no Democrat has posted, not even the only one to win them since 2008 (Barack Obama), and surge in ED GOTV comparable to normal net gain. Think that over.
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Richard Baris
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member and get exclusive features!

Premium member ($30.00/year)

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!