Nate Silver didn't say the odds are 50-50, you idiot.
In fact, he's repeatedly spent this whole election patiently trying to explain to people that there are odds other than 0%, 50%, and 100%. Your remark here proves you missed that lesson entirely.
In fact, he's repeatedly spent this whole election patiently trying to explain to people that there are odds other than 0%, 50%, and 100%. Your remark here proves you missed that lesson entirely.
Nate Silver currently forecasts Democrats have a 17 in 20 shot of taking the House.
Those are good odds, but it is indeed still "extremely possible" that Republicans could win a 3 in 20 dice roll.
Those are good odds, but it is indeed still "extremely possible" that Republicans could win a 3 in 20 dice roll.
I mean in one sense we should be more careful with terminology.
There's techically no such thing as "extremely possible." Either something is impossible (0%), definite (100%), or possible (anything in between). There are no degrees of possible, only degrees of likely.
There's techically no such thing as "extremely possible." Either something is impossible (0%), definite (100%), or possible (anything in between). There are no degrees of possible, only degrees of likely.
But in another sense, anyone discussing this in good faith knows what Nate Silver was trying to say.
By "extremely possible" he means something that, while unlikely, is likely enough that we should be willing to prepare for. As opposed to, say, the odds of winning the Powerball.
By "extremely possible" he means something that, while unlikely, is likely enough that we should be willing to prepare for. As opposed to, say, the odds of winning the Powerball.
