Happy Election Day! I start live tweeting my analysis at 6pm ET, but as a warm up here's my races to watch for each time the polls close:
6pm - IN & KY close, so look at the IN Senate and KY 6 House races. GOP wins both is in line with my predictions. Lose both - bad. 1/x
6pm - IN & KY close, so look at the IN Senate and KY 6 House races. GOP wins both is in line with my predictions. Lose both - bad. 1/x
7 pm - GA, FL, SC, VA, VT: FL Gov and Sen, GA Gov, but look at House races - VA 2, 5, 7, 10; GA 6, 7, FL 6, 15, 25, 26, 27. I think GOP loses two in VA, two in FL, and one more between GA & FL. Watch for a VT Gov upset - Dem win sign of bloodbath 2/x
7:30 pm - OH, NC, WV - OH Gov race is first of five tight MW Gov races. In House look for OH 1 & 12, WV 3, NC 9 & 13. I only have GOP losing one of these; if they lose more they will probably already have lost over my target in the earlier time zones and the rout is on.
8pm ET - TX & TN Sen - I think GOP wins both but if Dems win one they win the Senate. House - PA 1, NJ 3 & 7, ME 2, TX 7, 23 & 32, IL 6, 12, 13 & 14, MI 6, 8 & 11, KS 2 & 3. I have GOP losing 6 of these + 6 others. If there's a rout, though, they'll lose the majority here. 4/x
8:30 ET - Only AR 2. French Hill should only lose in an epic rout. 5/x
9 ET - NY, WI, MN, AZ, CO, NE, ND, NM, WY. House seats - NY 1, 11, 19, 22; WI 1 & 6, MN 1, 2, 3, 8; NE 2, CO 6, NM 2, AZ 2. I've got GOP down net 3 here. AZ Sen the key. If GOP is being routed, McSally won't win. If it's a better night than expected, she will. 6/x
10 ET - IA, MT, ID, NV, UT. In a GOP rout, this is where the Dems take the Senate. In a GOP decent night, look for MT and NV. House - MT-AL, NV 3, UT 4, IA 1, 3 & 4. I have GOP down net 3 here. 7/x
11 ET - CA, OR, WA: House - WA 3, 5, 8: CA 10, 21, 25, 39, 45, 48, 49. I have GOP down five here, maybe six. In a rout, they probably lose nine. Good night, maybe three. 8/9
Finally, Alaska closes at 1am ET. Both parties want to snatch the Governorship and the current longest serving member of the House, GOPer Don Young, is rumored to be in trouble. Even I might not stay up for the conclusion of these races! Enjoy the night!!! 9/9
