Overall it was one of those kaleidoscope elections that tells you different things as you twist and turn the results. The "blue wave" was absurdly overhyped and Dem House gains ended up in line with historic trends, but shouldn't GOP have done better with an economy like this?
Controlling the House could end up being a frustrating booby prize for the Dems, as they'll be extreme enough to alienate 2020 moderate voters but not extreme enough to satisfy their base, but losing the House definitely spells trouble for Trump's agenda.
Getting clobbered in the suburbs is a problem for the GOP, and the economy wasn't enough to mute the damage as some campaigns doubtless hoped. Dem voters fleeing blue states and cities but bringing their voting habits with them are a problem.
Some of the Dem losses were closer than they should have been; some of those candidates were radicals and train wrecks. OTOH, this was the best election environment Dems had in a generation. The absurd amounts of cash and media poured into "Beto" are not easily duplicated.
Polls clearly underestimated Republican enthusiasm, especially after Kavanaugh, which might go down in history as one of the worst political blunders Dems ever made. But Kavanaugh also helped Ds much more with suburban female voters than it should have.
The worst political blunder in history should hurt across all demographics much worse than Kavanaugh hurt Dems. Actually, it seems like it mostly energized GOP voters without really "hurting" Dems (i.e. depressing their turnout or turning off independents.)
Republicans did a LOT of damage to themselves by failing to repeal Obamacare. They ceded an issue that turned out to rank very highly among midterm voters, allowing Dems to profit politically from a problem THEY created. That's right behind Kavanaugh in terms of blunders.
Every House flip is basically the party that made a lot of promises it didn't keep getting beaten by the party making promises it won't be able to keep. You have to DELIVER in a big way, repeatedly, to break that cycle.
Overall, Dems are looking more stridently ideological, willing to close ranks around a dumpster fire like Menendez for The Cause. GOP needs to build ideological strength, which should be more possible now given the trimming the House caucus just got plus those Senate wins.
And in a hyper-polarized electorate, it's important to craft a message that reaches indies to break close races your way. That's part of what losing suburban women means. They're not hard Left as a class. They're pulled different ways by culture, college, and working life.
Celebrity endorsements were a huge bust for Dems, which suggests it's NEWS culture moving the suburban female vote, especially around big blue cities in red/purple states. When Trump does his end runs around media, that's a group he should be trying to reach.
Suburban women might be one of the last crucial demographics that still trusts DNC Media enough to be influenced but not completely dominated by it. The GOP should identify groups like that and do whatever it takes to bypass the media and message to them.
Bottom line: 2018 looks like a relatively successful defensive effort by GOP, heavily supported by an amazing late-game Dem fumble in Kavanaugh. Dems were once again partially blinded by the media that works so hard to help them. 2020 will not be a game won on defense. /end
