My observations:
1) GOP losses in the House are in line w the historical average. R gains in the Senate were unusual.
2) If Rs had held the House, the margin would have been so small, nothing of substance would have passed anyway. Senate continues to give R judges.
1) GOP losses in the House are in line w the historical average. R gains in the Senate were unusual.
2) If Rs had held the House, the margin would have been so small, nothing of substance would have passed anyway. Senate continues to give R judges.
3) D control of House presents peril and promise for Trump. The peril is subpoenas and investigations. The promise is Trump has a liberal foil to run against.
4) Turnout surged, but not to Presidential levels. In last 3 POTUS elections, roughly 130 million voted. In last 3 mid-terms, roughly 85 million voted. Looks like some 100 million voted yesterday.
5) The share of white voters is declining, but Ds are increasingly losing whites. White voters were 79% of all voters in 2006; 77% in 2010; 75% in 2014 and 72% yesterday. In ‘06, last time Ds took House, they lost white voters by 4 points. Ystrdy, Ds lost white voters by 10.
6) The GOP’s problem with women has grown. In ‘06, Rs lost women by 12. Ystrdy, GOP lost women by 19.
7) Turnout by voters 65+ surged yesterday, probably thanks to Trump nationalizing the election. Seniors yesterday were 26% of the electorate. In last 3 mid-terms, they were 19, 21, and 22%.
8) The youth vote was not up much. 18-29 yr. olds were 13% of the electorate yesterday. In last 3 mid-terms they were 12, 12, and 13%.
9)The education gap has grown wider. In 2006 (last time Ds won the House) college grads were +7 for the Ds. Yesterday they were +30 for the Ds. In 2006, non-college grads were +8 for the Ds. Yesterday, they were evenly split.
