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Ari Fleischer @AriFleischer
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
My predictions:

1) GOP gains net 3 in the Sen.
2) GOP loses between 20-30 in the House
3) No matter what, the results will be exaggerated, over-dramatized and over-hyped for their future significance, esp vis-a-vis impact on Trump's re-elect.
4) 2008 didn't predict what would happen in 2010, which didn't predict what would happen in 2012 which didn't predict what would happen in 2014, which certainly didn't predict what would happen in 2016. 2018 won't predict what will happen in 2020.
5) There's another election in two years. Between now and then, lots will change, for better or worse.
6) The genius of our founders is that we're perpetuly a self-correcting, self-governing system. Enjoy the next two years. We'll do it again.
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More from @AriFleischer see all

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I’ve defended Bob Mueller since the day he was announced. I continue to do so. His work is important and the American people deserve to know what he finds - and doesn’t find.

If Trump/Whitaker were to fire him, it would boomerang on Trump severely. nationalreview.com/2018/11/jeff-f…
Many Rs who cut Trump some slack, even if they don’t always like him, will turn against him. Trump’s approval rating will plunge and he will be in credible danger of impeachment and possibly conviction.

Nothing Trump could do would be dumber than firing Mueller.
But just because it’s dumb doesn’t mean that Constitutionally he doesn’t have the right to do it. Everyone in the executive branch works for the President. He has the right to fire. Trump’s predecessors had that right. His successors will have that right. He has that right.
Read 5 tweets
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On Acosta, I can't defend his behavior. He uses his position in the briefing room to espouse pesonal points of view. "It's not an invasion" he said re the caravan. His job is to ask challenging Qs, not argue for his POV. He goes too far and hurts the rest of the press corps.
I personally wouldn't have pulled his hard pass. I'd have made light of it, wishing him good luck getting his op-eds published. Or hoping he finally gets to host a nighttime cable TV show. The hostility between the press and the Trump WH is unhealthy and Acosta is the example.
Tension in the briefing room is natural and inevitable, but Acosta has pushed the envelope beyond what any reporter I've ever known has done. I think CNN's suit is a bad move that will backfire. Acosta Hill is the wrong one to die on.
Read 4 tweets
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My observations:

1) GOP losses in the House are in line w the historical average. R gains in the Senate were unusual.

2) If Rs had held the House, the margin would have been so small, nothing of substance would have passed anyway. Senate continues to give R judges.
3) D control of House presents peril and promise for Trump. The peril is subpoenas and investigations. The promise is Trump has a liberal foil to run against.
4) Turnout surged, but not to Presidential levels. In last 3 POTUS elections, roughly 130 million voted. In last 3 mid-terms, roughly 85 million voted. Looks like some 100 million voted yesterday.
Read 8 tweets

Related threads

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#GOP salivating over someone 6yrs older than Trump with reams of oppo on him and a phalanx of haters among Democrats does not equal "a lot of people." Sanders polls at 12% & #Midterms were about women & POC.

A Lot of People Want Bernie to Run in 2020
theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
As I wrote a few weeks ago for @damemagazine, 2020 won't be about one term, but two. Any Democrat running for 2020 must be prepared to be an incumbent for 2024. Sanders will be 83 going in.

damemagazine.com/2018/09/04/how…
The reality that neither Bernie nor Biden wants to face is how neither of them looks all that different from Trump on a debate stage. But the counterbalance between Trump and a woman, especially one 20yrs his junior, would be incredibly stark.
Read 4 tweets
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Byron York: End could be near for House investigation of Trump-Russia investigators washex.am/2R6xs6Z
“Republicans on Capitol Hill have added enormously to the public's understanding of what happened in the Trump-Russia investigation. They're still doing it. But it will come to a screeching halt if the GOP loses control of the House in next month's midterm elections.”
Americans know several things about the conduct of the Trump-Russia probe that they would not have had Nunes and colleagues not tackled the subject.
Read 15 tweets
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The relentlessness of passing over superb women with strong credentials & election histories in favor of whatever man is a headline at a moment is exhausting.

Two months ago it was Avenatti. Now it's O'Rourke.

Bypassing the majority of Americans--women--is a national disgrace.
O'Rourke is fine. He is not, Harris, Gillibrand or Klobuchar.

▪Gillibrand is Congress' leader on women's rights & sexual assault victims.
▪Harris set NN2018 on fire with her speeches reclaiming identity politics.
▪ Klobuchar highlighted #Kavanaugh's unfitness for SCOTUS.
Americans MUST stop looking past women to find some man, any man to supplant them.

It took THIRTY YEARS of incredibly hard work for @HillaryClinton to get to run for POTUS. The rules for women are so different. No one sees a woman give a single speech and says "president!"
Read 16 tweets
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Even if you believe this is true, proceed as though it isn't. If we don't flip at least one house in November, then the GOP will continue to perceive that the cost of protecting Trump is lower than the cost of giving him up.
I've said before that it took a village -- a huge confluence of factors, and coordinated/sympathetic efforts from multiple directions -- to get Trump into office and it will take a similar multidimensional effort to get him out.
If the GOP loses at least one house in November, then they will perceive the cost of protecting him increasing. The legislative agenda stalls as of January, which means that Trump has one fewer source of "wins" to bolster him.
Read 12 tweets
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Over the past few months I have collected 500+ Trump, Pence and RNC tracking URLs dating back to June 2016. I've shared bits & pieces of this (⏬) as I've been looking under the hood, in search of the truth behind Project Alamo/Trump marketing ops.

THREAD will be ongoing...
The 500+ links are tracking links. They contain custom variables team Trump/Pence/RNC attached to links so they could measure & analyze performance via Google Analytics.

These are UTM parameters: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UTM_param…

I'll share full URL list once I'm done cleaning it up!
You can learn a lot about a marketing program by examining their tracking links. So here's the 1st nugget:

#1: Trump campaign used Facebook Messenger bots to communicate w/voters 1-on-1.

I haven't seen this reported anywhere. If you have, pls send a link!
Read 153 tweets
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Okay, so... I'm going to make myself a drink and then we're doing this. Deep dive into Trump's campaign rally speech from Pennsylvania on March 10th.
All my babies already know the drill. For the newer followers - what I do is not fact checking, it's interpretation. Context and content analysis. Political and psychological insights.
This kind of thing has been my calling since Trump's election and I do do it for a living, more or less. If you get anything out of it, if you want to support this kind of work, if you've just got too much money, you can tip in. paypal.me/alexandraerin
Read 224 tweets

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