One thing I noted in this @PostOutlook piece from this morning that deserves a little more emphasis -- when it came to the House, the forecasters pretty much nailed this election. washingtonpost.com/outlook/2018/1…
Right now, it looks like Democrats are on track to pick up 35 seats.
At their Crystal Ball site, @LarrySabato and @kkondik predicted a Democratic gain of 34 seats. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
At their Crystal Ball site, @LarrySabato and @kkondik predicted a Democratic gain of 34 seats. crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/ar…
Likewise, @databyler at @weeklystandard also predicted the Democrats would wind up with 228 seats in the House, which translates to a pickup of 34 seats.
weeklystandard.com/david-byler/fo…
weeklystandard.com/david-byler/fo…
At @CNN, @ForecasterEnten predicted a slightly lower net pickup of 32 seats for the Democrats. cnn.com/2018/11/06/pol…
The folks at @CookPolitical were a little more sweeping, predicting a broader Democratic range of 30-40 seats gained -- which, again, proved to be pretty much right if we wind up with a gain of 35. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
And on and on.
For all the hell they caught in 2016 -- largely from people who didn't quite understand probabilities -- the forecasters acquitted themselves pretty damn well this time around.
For all the hell they caught in 2016 -- largely from people who didn't quite understand probabilities -- the forecasters acquitted themselves pretty damn well this time around.
