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Alberto Nardelli @AlbertoNardelli
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Brexit latest: EU27 diplomats were told today that EU and UK negotiators are exploring a backstop architecture that sets out three options to review in July 2020 buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
The three options:

1) The backstop becomes superfluous because a hard border will have been avoided through a trade deal

2) The transition period is extended

3) The backstop is activated, and the UK enters into a customs union with the EU
The backstop option would also require the UK to remain aligned to EU competition, state aid and tax rules, and Northern Ireland would remain in the EU’s regulatory space for goods.

tl;dr it's still the backstop.
On the plus side, this backstop architecture would provide an insurance policy and buy time to negotiate details. EU27 ambos told that the exit deal is in a solid shape, but there is still work to be done, and there are moving parts due to the volatile political situation in UK
In terms of process: if there is a deal – still a big if – member states would have time to review any draft. Leaders currently expected to endorse any final deal in Dec. (after UK parliamentary process)
Alt. headline: The UK And The EU Will Still Be Talking About The Backstop 50 Months After Brexit.

Full story: buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
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More from @AlbertoNardelli see all

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Brexit. Things are getting worse.

1. The withdrawal agreement is needed regardless of the shape of the future relationship. The withdrawal agreement on the table, including the backstop, will not be renegotiated. EU27 cannot be clearer on this point – and this is the key point.
2. Throughout these negotiations, so many problems have been created by N10’s inability & unwillingness to set realistic expectations, explain tradeoffs and communicate clearly. As the PM runs out of road, the confusion over the withdrawal agreement is the latest example
3. The political declaration allows for a full spectrum of future options, but it is not clear what kind of relationship the UK wants. This will require a proper debate on tradeoffs (and years of negotiation). However, whatever that option: you need the withdrawal agreement
Read 7 tweets
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About last night:

1) May went to the meeting seeking legally-binded assurances with half-baked proposals to placate hard Brexiteers & DUP

These have been rejected repeatedly for obvious reasons. Backstop is an insurance policy not “a trap.” Not EU27 problem many MPs ignore this
2) May was asked by several leaders, and, I am told, most emphatically by Chancellor Merkel: 'what is it that you want?'

The prime minister was unable to provide an answer to this question with any precision.
That is where May is at in a nutshell: Nearly two years after triggering article 50, the UK does not have an answer to the question, "what do you want?"

There are also concerns that the UK – across the political spectrum – has no idea what kind of future relationship it wants.
Read 7 tweets
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EUCO draft Brexit conclusions: I understand that paragraph 5 (EU stands ready to examine whether any further assurances can be provided..) has gone.
Par. 1, which wasn't in square brackets, is of course unchanged: "The Union stands by this agreement and intends to proceed with its ratification. It is not open for renegotiation."
Par 2 unchanged: EU reiterates wish for 'as close as possible partnership.." 'stands ready to embark on prep immediately after signature of WA to ensure negotiations can start asap after withdrawal'. Understand 27 discussed starting prep work on future deal as soon as UK ratifies
Read 12 tweets

Related threads

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I am pleased an agreement has been reached between EU & UK negotiators on a draft #Brexit Withdrawal Treaty. While I welcome these developments, Brexit is not our policy & is something we regret. However we respect the vote of the people of the UK.
Our national priorities are:
- protecting the Good Friday Agreement.
- maintaining the Common Travel Area & related benefits
- reaffirming our place at the heart of the EU
- protecting trade, jobs and the economy
On each of these, we have reached a satisfactory outcome today.
Avoiding a hard border has proven to be one of the most difficult challenges. What has become know as “the backstop” is now fully spelt out in the Withdrawal Agreement. The backstop would apply “unless and until” a better solution is agreed.
Read 8 tweets
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Brexit is the backstop; the backstop is #Brexit.

After 3 days in Belfast, talking to all sides, here's what I've learned - on the business and the politics of this deal. And its viability.

1/Thread
First the business/technical aspects of how a backstop would work.

I talked to business lobby groups, Stephen Kelly from @ManufacturingNI fresh back from talks with Barnier. And bosses of big companies.

The are surprisingly sanguine. /2

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
@ManufacturingNI If the backstop emerges as the British want (and that is still an 'if') it would look as follows:

- all-UK in a temporary customs Union
- Northern Ireland only in Single Market for goods, via devolution
- no checks GB-NI
- 'de-dramatised checks on regs NI-GB

/3
Read 26 tweets
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1/ Tory Brexiteer @Jacob_Rees_Mogg should be happy - since the UK is soon going to leave the EU. But instead of being happy, he now insists that every sensible form or permutation of Brexit put forward is some kind of odious Betrayal of the British people. #Brexit
2/ The House of Commons’ Select Committee for Exiting the EU has suggested that if the UK Government is unable to achieve the form of Brexit it wants, then the Plan B should be to opt for a EFTA/EEA style Brexit. politico.eu/article/uk-bre…
3/ So Jacob shouldn't be too concerned - if he believes that Mrs May will actually achieve 'Plan A' then there is no problem. But his response to this report wasn't positive. It attacked the efta/EEA model.
Read 11 tweets
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1) Megathread - Yes, the #Brexit vote is illegitimate, and it's not elitist to say so

Simply put, a vote that is based on misconceptions and illusions but which *cannot* be reversed is an affront to democracy therefore the very concept of the referendum is illegitimate
2) So why was the #Brexit vote illegitimate? Well, broadly speaking:
1) The Brexit we "voted for" ends FoM, the ECJ & payments to EU
2) This will be severely damaging to the economy & jobs
3) If the public was asked today the same question but were told the above,Remain would win
3) Leave simply would not win if the costs of the #Brexit they promised were revealed honestly in a second referendum. The only way they could win is if these costs were obscured again

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 13 tweets
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THREAD (1) When the likes of Hannan feel the need to 'brush off' something so critical to the right-wing/neo-con #Brexit wet dream, we find digging a little deeper to be useful. After all, ground breaking 'shadow trade deals' with right-wing US think tanks is no small fish.
(2) In fact, given the growing negativity surrounding the #Brexit negotiations, compounded by the Govts' own damning economic analysis, one would have thought Hannan and Fox et al, would be shouting from the roof tops about their bespoke 'shadow US-UK trade deal.' Wouldn't you?
(3) The problem for our intrepid trade deal making duo, as almost always, is to be found in the detail; just what are, and who is, behind these neo-con US think tanks? Perhaps Daniel would enlighten us?
Read 21 tweets
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#Brexit
1) Thread - All Brexits are bad and what we voted for
It's often said by brexiters that "it's not all about economics"
However, the *actual* Leave campaign was almost wholly about economic arguments

With the leak of this 2-8% report those arguments are now trashed
2) We seem to have forgotten this however economics played a huge part in the Vote Leave campaign, making up over 2/3rds of the primary arguements. The clear message was we would at the least be no worse off and at best much better off. 4 of the 6 below state this clearly
3) & the fact is voters believed we would be no worse off. People prioritized immigration certainly, but against a backdrop of there being no consequences from Brexit - few are prepared to actually pay for ending FoM
Read 36 tweets

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