Thread by @pmdfoster

Shorter #brexitcast
Irish Backstop

GB-NI remain in "single customs territory, but NI is treated 'as if' in the EU, following Union Customs Code and SM rules.

This will persist "unless and until" (Article 1) it is superseded by arrangement that obviates need. 1/

BUT this is balanced this with an assertion that the arrangements are “intended to apply only temporarily” and - in Article 2(1) - a commitment that that both sides “shall use their best endeavours” to reach that “subsequent agreement”. /2

The protocol then sets out three options to be considered in July 2020 as the end of the transition approaches - either conclude a deal, “extend” the transition period (with payments to be agreed) or trigger the Irish backstop noted above. /3

The entire arrangement is managed by “a joint consultative working group” and, under Article 20, the UK can “notify” the EU if it believes the backstop is no longer necessary, but cannot unilaterally pull out of the deal. /4

“Within 6 months of such a notification, the Joint Cmme shall meet at ministerial level to consider the notification,” but the backstop shall cease to apply only if the EU and UK “decide jointly...the Protocol shall cease to apply, in whole or in part.” /5

So chapeau to UK negotiators who always said they'd get EU to agree all-UK backstop.

But there still isn't really an exit mechanism, only a 'best endeavour' clause and - the UK will argue - fairly light level playing field requirements that motivate EU to seek exit. 6/ ENDS

To be clear DUP won’t like it.

ERG and Brexiteers won’t like it

But none have come up with better ideas - as I write here

Let’s see what the morrow holds...

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…