Thread by @pmdfoster

So the #Brexit summit is 'on' is seems, the Spanish PM @sanchezcastejon will attend after UK recognised the Spanish 'veto' on future relationship discussions applying to Gibraltar.

What does that mean, in the real world? 1/Thread

@sanchezcastejon Recall the April 2017 which first gave Spain the 'veto' over how future talks would apply... Spain felt that this had somehow been brought into question by drafting of the Withdrawal Agreement /2

@sanchezcastejon Mrs May's talk of "negotiating for the whole UK family" spooked Madrid further; even though as @nick_gutteridge says Commission legal service said veto was still there. But Spain wanted *written* confirmation from the Brits. When they have now got: /3

@sanchezcastejon @nick_gutteridge It is a magnificently and deliberately mealy-mouthed statement that is designed to conceal some pretty unpalatable facts.

So while I agree with @nick_gutteridge that this is a diplomatic storm in a teacup, it points to Spanish leverage and tough times ahead when talks start. /4

@sanchezcastejon @nick_gutteridge Every time part of future relationship discussion comes up that impacts Gibraltar, that element gets sucked into a separate bilateral track, as it applies to Gibraltar.

On the upside, this stops *entire* process being held to ransom by Spain but it leaves Gibraltar exposed/5

@sanchezcastejon @nick_gutteridge As @_ignaciomolina of the Elcano Institute explains it to me, this is the route by which Spain changes the game on Gibralatar, not including sovereignty. As he puts it..../6

@sanchezcastejon @nick_gutteridge @_ignaciomolina Now true this has been hiding in plain sight since April 2017, but I'm not sure that makes it any more comfortable for @FabianPicardo

It seems as if, the way Spanish see it, they got Gib over a barrel. Hard to see what that isn't so.

Another #Brexit 'dividend' /7ENDS