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Nicolai von Ondarza @NvOndarza
, 4 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Japanese Business Represenation have today released a statement on #Brexit that is quite remarkable.

Very direct calls to UK and EU-27 on transition, future relationship and third party agreements

jbce.org/brexit/jbce-ke…
On transition, they echo EU call for full single market and customs union participation of the UK.

Even more, they call for a long transition and clear extension mechanism.

Otherwise, Japanese companies would need to trigger 'do deal' contigency planning.
Equally blunt are their positions on the future relationship, incl calls for
- no tarriffs
- the UK to remain within a customs regime with the EU
- regulatory coherence
- UK participation in EU programmes

In short, please don't change anything that might rock the boat.
Finally, on third party agreements they not only demand that they remain applicable during transition

Most importantly for them, the EU-Japan FTA currently in negotiation should also apply to the UK during transition, with an UK-Japan FTA to follow immediately after transition
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More from @NvOndarza see all

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There is a growing sentiment in the UK that the EU is trying to force through 'Versailles-like terms' on it in the #Brexit negotiations, as expressed here by @pmdfoster:

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…

It is wrong and dangerous, not only because of the explosive historical analogy:
First, the current offer of the EU27 is not a 'bare bones FTA'.

CETA is the deepest FTA of the EU so far, and a UK-EU DCFTA would be deeper still.

It only now seems to be becoming clear that the single market is indeed much more than a free trade area.
Second, the 'Versailles' feeling feeds directly from the narrative that the UK could leave the EU without significant economic consequences.

It is not disrespectful of the #Brexit referendum to maintain that there is a trade-off between sovereignty and economic integration.
Read 3 tweets
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Given the political dynamics in #Italy, it is time to dust off my analysis from 2016 - 'Eurosceptics in Power' - on how Eurosceptic parties have influenced EU policy making both in the EP and when in nat. government

swp-berlin.org/en/publication…

Four points stand out in particular:
First, Italy is not the first instance of eurosceptic and/or populist parties entering national government.

Elite consensus on EU integration has been waning for a long time - reflecting the more sceptical attitude in many member states.
Second, in decision-making at the EU level they acted (largely) constructive. Voting data from the Council revealed no strong increase in vetos or 'no' votes after Eurosceptic parties entered nat. governments.

Exceptions to this are migration and institutional questions
Read 7 tweets
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"#Brexit and EU agencies", our extensive look into third country relationships of the 36 EU agencies and how the UK might fit in.

swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/cont…

Albeit largely technical, agencies will have huge implications on Brexit.

Five points stand out in particular:
First, Agencies matter. Like the customs union, they are a technical aspect of the EU, that works and was thus hardly discussed in the UK before #Brexit.
But they are important for single market, but also justice and home affairs.

UK gov thus has already asked to continue participation in selected agencies, in particular in sectors important to the UK economy, like aviation, chemicals or pharma.
Read 10 tweets

Related threads

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SO. #Brexit boils down to how - or if - the UK can ever leave the dreaded Irish backstop.

There is talk of a "review mechanism". So what might that be? How might it work?

Some thoughts after chats with both sides + experts 1/Thread

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/…
Let's start from the point of agreement.

Both sides say backstop is
a) necessary
b) temporary
c) should be superseded by future relationship

So there does need to be what one EU source calls an "unwinding" mechanism. /2
The problem (before we get to the detail of that mechanism) is that no-one can see what version of the Future Relationship can deliver on UK commitment to no return to a hard border in Ireland.

May's dual tariff or 'MaxFac' unicorns are dead. /3
Read 17 tweets
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So Theresa May arrives at EU summit and, like a dream sequence, repeats that "considerable progress" has been made since Salzburg but "problems remain on Northern Ireland backstop".

So what can we say back in the real world? /1
UK Negotiators just spent nine days straight reaching about as far as they can go on #Brexit fudges.

In summary, the EU will NOT give the UK an all-UK customs backstop. But it WILL agree to an all-UK customs arrangement in the future relationship document.

This didn't fly./2
When @MichelBarnier addresses EU leaders tonight, he will have to give an honest assessment of whether more talks can really move this on - in the absence of "new facts" as @eucopresident Donald Tusk put it.

Hard to see how - at which point the ball may be back in May's court /3
Read 16 tweets
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1. So "US-UK Brexit" is trending. The CATO/IEA/ASI proposal for a UK-US FTA. A few thoughts (#Brexit thread)

object.cato.org/sites/cato.org…
2. The reaction to it is largely based on a single Guardian article which ignites all the usual histrionics about hormone beef, chlorinated chicken and privatisation of the NHS. This is reactionary and a sign that they haven;t actually read it. It's still bad though...
3. The document aims to be radical by throwing out conventional practices in trade deals in favour of "innovation" but what it actually does is throw out everything they have only half understood in favour of flights of fantasy.
Read 18 tweets
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1/ A small thread on why BOTH many Remainers & Leavers still havent "got" that #Brexit has already failed...
....even if it goes ahead.
& why its often "media noise" rather than "actual lies" is obscuring this & the fact that Brexit wont happen as we thought it would 2 years ago.
2/ Basic Leave idea pre #Brexit vote was that a prosperous UK with large trade deficit eager to retain many European standards wld not really offer a threat to EU was not completely implausible as many remainers assumed.
But it depended on....
3/ Basic #Brexit idea was to convince EU that with a bit of compromise & British payments UK cld leave single mkt but retain full access to it while it worked out its future. Indeed many sensible Leavers didnt want radical change overnight..however there was one small problem....
Read 16 tweets
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UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets
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I'm currently at this #Brexit conference in Copenhagen, where the British ambassador and several #DExEU officials will be on panels with representatives of Danish trade and security. It'll be very interesting to see what's said, especially in light of May's recent Munich speech.
And now that I'm not desperately trying to keep up with livetweeting it, I shall turn my mess of self-retweets into a proper thread. #Brexit #BrexitDK
acknowledges #Brexit will have challenges; emphasises no naïveté regarding "land of milk and honey". Refreshing sense of pragmatism; we'll see how #DExEU and DK reps present it.

#BrexitDK
Read 55 tweets

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