Thread by @Nate_Cohn

As far as I'm concerned, we're basically in wait and see mode until we get a handful of completed counties.
In the mean time, the enlarged CHS margin in DeSoto and narrow Espy lead in Warren are cause for cautious GOP optimism. But you can't say much until you're at 100% here

Taking the broader view besides Warren/Desoto, I'd still argue that Espy is running a few points behind his targets. But again, who knows what a Dem win looks like here, turnout is quite uncertain, and the picture within county is pretty tough due to racial segregation

The other thing I'd note, though, is that the 'target' I'm using here is mainly based on the Alabama Senate race. Can certainly imagine an Espy road that involves even higher black turnout than in AL (which was very very good), and weaker performance in white rural areas

It does seem to me, for what it's worth, that we're on track for turnout to exceed these AL-SEN based estimates (though again you really can't say until counties finish)

We're 95% of the way to the ALSEN based est in DeSoto with 92% reporting it, and we're already over it in Warren w/91% reporting

Still nothing at 100%, but updating this chart it does seem pretty hard to find anywhere far along in the county where Espy is really beating the 'target'
The catch, though, is it's mainly GOP-tilting areas and this doesn't account for turnout, which could be more favorable

Deleted a tweet about Hancock county which erroneously said the vote was done there. It's not, which is not a minor issue here especially when it comes to turnout

We do have two completed counties now, though: Benton and Amite.
Very small counties, but collectively the result there is right on line with the target for a tied race, though I'll note that elsewhere in the state CHS is generally running ahead of the target

We have two more completed counties--polar opposites: Tishmingo (white, Appalachia) and Coahoma (Delta, 70% black).
A decent pair of results for CHS.
Coahoma is right in line with a ALSEN-based est for a tie, but Tishmingo stronger for CHS both in terms of turnout and support

Now we're up to 7 completed counties. Generally representative.
Take them together: Espy at 46% there v. a target of 49%.
Over all: lean CHS, mid-single digit advantage

And looking at the big picture, you get the same thing. Espy just generally not quite hitting what he'd need to get over the top

Same story, but for those following at home the most recent counties to wrap up have been a bit better for Espy, but he's basically still looking at mid-single digits at best, if Jackson/Delta turnout proves stronger than what we've seen from majority black areas so far

as an aside, my favorite replies of the night are people who see use of AL special data in the estimates and reflexively yell "Mississippi isn't Alabama!!!" lol
if i ever hold a liberal arts intro class on electoral analysis, i look forward to your participation in discussion