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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Subscriptions are harder than many people believe. "YouTube will double down on ad-supported business by making all future originals free, regardless of whether they pay $12 each month for subscription service YouTube Premium." hollywoodreporter.com/live-feed/yout… Wallet share isn't unlimited
If Liberty is correct and the average per capita budget for subscription video is ~$38 a month, there will only be so many winners out of 200 + OTT video streamers that may want to charge a subscription fee.
"The AT&T video streaming product will include three tiers of service: an entry-level package focused on movies, a premium tier with original programming and the highest tier will include licensed content from other providers." reuters.com/article/us-at-… Unit economics are critical.
"AT&T expects a decline in video subscribers in 2019 consistent with the pace of decrease in the third quarter of 2018" (in the third quarter, shedding a net 359,000 subscribers). CAC for satellite TV can be close to $800 per gross addition. Churn of a subscriber is painful.
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"According to the survey results, the median pay for full-time writers was $20,300 in 2017, and that number decreased to $6,080 when part-time writers were considered. The latter figure reflects a 42 percent drop since 2009, when the median was $10,500."
In my blog post on writing books I wrote: "6. Don’t expect to earn more than the minimum wage and be thrilled if you earn more." google.com/amp/s/25iq.com…
"In Mémoires (1759), Voltaire recalled how in his youth he had come across so many writers who were “penniless and held in contempt” that “he had decided not to add to their number.” laphamsquarterly.org/luck/voltaires… "Thanks to his fortune he was free to pursue his writerly life."
Read 3 tweets
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"Companies can lose a lot of money in their early years but be wonderful businesses if they are acquiring customers with long lives and strong variable margins."

But some businesses just do the losing money part. A critical skill is knowing the difference between the two types.
Customer-based corporate valuation (CBCV) = valuing a business on a "bottoms up" basis by valuing the customers. In a subscription business especially, this is an essential process if you want to understand if real value is being created despite a lack of current GAAP earnings.
"CBCV isn’t about being profitable from day one. It’s about variable profitability in net present value terms (while still being mindful of fixed cost overhead of course!)" Determining whether a specific business is a delicious cheesecake or a turd requires detective work.
Read 6 tweets
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“The Fasten Seat Belt sign is now illuminated. If you haven’t already done so, please check your cash and cash equivalent balances. Please lower your burn rate and make sure your defensive investments are in their full upright position.”
“If you find yourself needing an emergency exit from illiquid investments, please read carefully the special instructions card. Cash is more king than ever. If you can’t handle the haircut you are about to experience, please ask someone to do the selling to raise cash for you.”
“We remind you this remains an uncertain and no sympathy correction. No one knows anything for sure as is usual. Crying and whining is prohibited, including in the lavatories. Tampering with, disabling or destroying your brokerage statements is pointless and prohibited by law.”
Read 5 tweets

Related threads

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So, I've waded through the Evangelical Alliance's new pastoral "guidelines" for interacting with trans people (ughh, the things I do to expose #transphobic #ciswits to the world), and let's just say it's time to tear this particular sh*t-bag a new hole.

1/n
CW: #Transphobia, #ConversionTherapy, #Zucker, #Religiously #driven #zealotry

2/n
So, straight off the bat, first page of text, the use of #language is . . . well, yeah, see for yourself:

"It is important to remember that transgender is not simply an issue to be debated;" - p5, #Transformed

*sigh*

When such language gets reinforced by insisting...

3/n
Read 176 tweets
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Many people believe that machine learning algorithms are analytical -- that they ponder over the data available and do logical, unbiased reasoning using some internal model.

They're the opposite of that: they're intuitive. They do pattern recognition. They're System 1, not 2.
Machine learning models take the shortest path from input to label, based on previous situations they've encountered -- just like human intuition. Straight input-to-output mapping.

And of course, they tend to be highly biased.
Replies indicate that people are very confused about what "bias" means. It means doing pattern recognition based on spurious correlations, as opposed to causal reasoning. A ML model will use all correlations found in the training data, and typically many of them will be spurious.
Read 3 tweets
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Just to be clear - my Aldi post wasn't paid - I just asked for vouchers to give away to my readers. I spent my own money on the shopping and didn't ask for payment, because I thought the opportunity to feed 10 people was greater than the opportunity to earn a few quid. Thanks!
I choose my work carefully; I don't often work with big companies for nothing but I chose to effectively donate my fee for this one to do something better with it. I hope that clears up any queries! Also, er, the only person who can ask me to work for free is me. Thanks :)
I felt I had to clarify that as a few people asked why I hadn't put #ad or #spon on the post - and I hope that clears it up :) Collab stuff is new to me but I hope I'm doing okay :)
Read 3 tweets
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At dinner, I learned more about corruption + racism built into society by our masters. A book we discussed (Zinn) was used as part of this "Left" resource's bibliography. I had to share. [A thread]

@BlackSocialists - thoughts on this resource?

historyisaweapon.com/indextrue.html
It very simply lays out the case that we are all being controlled. It covers hidden history of the United States including their (and, due to the systems created by our masters, our) racism. 

#racism #systemicracism #history
If you haven't been in school for a while (or are in a terrible school), some of the words might trip you up. Dictionary.com and Wikipedia.org are two good resources to help you.
Read 39 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Ciswits #language #Voices #Hammond #system #God #tragic #race #regulations #schools #OldTestament #vigilant #failed #teacher #sellout #individual #speech #responsibility #publicoffice #PrivacyByDesign #racism #colonized #watch #populist #fail

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