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Rob Ford @robfordmancs
, 6 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Flashback to two years ago. How IDS and Owen Paterson claimed the Brexit negotiation process would work.
As we approach the A50 cliff edge, worth reminding ourselves of the level of strategic thinking prevalent among senior Con MPs around the time they decided to trigger the two year countdown clock.
One wonderful feature of this 2016 "action plan", is the plan is literally one action (offer talks) described in four points. The other three are just huffy defences of the single action. Its an Underpants Gnome Action Plan:
1. Offer talks
2. ???
3. Brexit!
Notice also these pearls of 2016 Brexiteer wisdom:
1. We will stay in the single market
2. But we don't pay anything and dump FoM (CAKE!)
3. We don't have to negotiate if we don't want to.
Whole document in the attached link.

Not mentioned at all in the Executive Summary, as far as I can see:
1. Customs union
2. The Irish border

centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/core/wp-conten…
Also contributing to this conference of Brexiteer bigwigs at All Souls College Oxford were:
John Redwood
Sir Bill Cash
Bernard Jenkin
Peter Lilley
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Insightful stuff from Stephen as usual. People’s Vote campaign still haven’t figured out good message to win the referendum they campaign for. One problem imo is the one @hugorifkind identified today - Remainers have gone Conan and are more interested in venting than persuading
Imagine a horde of #fbpe types descending on the nations doorsteps to explain to joe public that he is a racist moron duped by Russians into blaming all his problems on the immigrants who keep this country running, who has now been given a golden opportunity to reverse his error.
Sound persuasive? No? Well that’s the jist of the message I hear from the most committed and active pro-Remain types nearly all the time. It doesn’t seem to trouble them that “my opponents are stupid” isn’t great for a campaign which requires winning over at least some of them.
Read 3 tweets
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OK, time for my 2019 predictions thread....
1. Brexit. I have very low confidence in this, given the huge uncertainty and wide range of options but here goes:
We will go right to the edge of the A50 deadline, maybe even a little past it, but in the end May's deal will get voted through after an absolutely awful March
May's deal has two advantages - it starts with a large pool of votes, and it requires less steps to achieve than any of the other options.
With both Lab and Cons unwilling to co-ordinate on an alternative, and unwilling to work with the Other Side despite internal divides...
Read 54 tweets
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Will do a thread of 2019 predictions tomorrow. First, a thread on things I got wrong in 2018. 1/?
Starting with the question which consumed us in Britain in 2018: Brexit. A year ago, my expectation was that we would have secured and voted through a deal by this point in time. The deal would pass at the second or third time of asking, with Labour votes to overcome ERG rebels.
3/? Not where we are of course. What did I get wrong? Several things, I think. I underestimated the size and inflexibility of the "no deal is better than a bad deal" faction in the Parl Cons. And underestimted the willingness of govt to take us right to the edge of No Deal
Read 23 tweets

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1. #Brexit was never an economic proposition but that doesn't mean we can simply disregard the economic concerns. They are both real and urgent. Our future trade and geostrategic position matters - and for Brexit to be workable long term we need to be mindful of that.
2. On that score we need to start from a position of relative strength - which we won't if we leave without a deal. We'll be taking a hit of anywhere up to 200bn a year in trade by way of losing critical single market participation. That's a substantially weaker starting position
3. Much of our trade is interwoven. It's not a matter of shipping a tin of beans from point A to point B. Complex products are only worth selling if you can sell the service contracts that go with them - and that means being able to dispatch engineers.
Read 25 tweets
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1. The Rolls Royce story this morning was instructive. They are moving their design approvals work to Germany. They say it won't involve that many job losses - but that's only really the tip of the iceberg for the sector...

#Brexit thread
2. Passenger aircraft go through a series of maintenance checks at depots in the UK. There are deep inspections and none of this can be done without authorisations and certifications. That's the sort of services trade in danger by leaving the EEA. and especially so with no deal
3. Then, if one of these inspections finds a patch of corrosion in the wing, that section of rib or stringer has to be cut out and replaced. A designer has to come up with a solution that not only fits, but also can withstand the stress.
Read 18 tweets
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Some very breathless reporting/reading of @MichelBarnier remarks y'day. So what is happening on #Brexit? Some thoughts on talking with both sides. 1/Thread
@MichelBarnier First Barnier. To be clear, it was absolutely orthodox. We respect UK red lines, but within those limits will give UK broadest ever FTA and Association Agreement. It's EXACTLY what he said on Aug 2 OpEd: "unprecedented in scope and depth." /2

ec.europa.eu/commission/new…
@MichelBarnier So why all the huffing and puffing, the sudden optimism about EU willingness and desire to cut a deal?

Well first, it's important to focus on what that 'deal' is in Oct/Nov - it's the withdrawal agreement.

Money. Citizens. Northern Ireland backstop. NOT Chequers. /2
Read 18 tweets
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1. The no deal #Brexit advocates are in full spin mode. They say we can trade on WTO terms alone. So anybody with a clue asks them about aviation and nuclear sectors etc where they mutter something about bilateral deals. That's an admission that we cannot trade on WTO rules alone
2. They then pretend we can have an amicable negotiated exit to WTO rules. We can't. This would be a package with all the bilaterals covering aviation and nuclear - there bare minimum to avoid civil emergencies. It would not include any mutual recognition on anything.
3. There is no way the EU would sign such an agreement without the existing agreements on citizens rights, the financial settlement and the NI backstop. There is no rowing back from that. The government would have to agree or there is no deal.
Read 18 tweets
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MSM: "We had no idea."
Me: "I wrote this June 30, 2016, so..."

Trump, Terror & Brexit curvemag.com/News/Trump-Ter…
When Trump was in the UK right after #Brexit, he spoke repeatedly about how the British had voted to "take their country back."
Trump reiterated that during his #TrumpUKVisit--he warned of the UK "Losing their culture."

We had a clear preview two years ago as I wrote here:
The claims no one knew Trump's intentions are false.

He trumpeted them everywhere he went. It was shocking, but fully evident. He talked about his intent to isolate America from the world--and demonized POC in every exchange.
#Brexit previewed how that racism impacted citizens.
Read 6 tweets
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Okay, then peeps. LONG THREAD. Put down your union flag for a moment and just take some information in. I will try to explain the approaching #Brexit nightmare using a single, calm, factual example, so far largely ignored. I urge you to think, share and talk about this. Ready?
The UK has no structures or agency of its own for approving and licensing medicines. It relies almost exclusively on the European Medicines Agency. The MHRA is an ancillary organisation. In precisely 15 months UK access to the EMA ends; abruptly if the "no deal" voices prevail.
Where are the UK's preparations for replacing this vital framework? The answer is: Non-existent. Not even embryonic. Just a statement by Hunt this summer that the UK "will look to continue to work closely” with the EMA, but we're ready "to establish our own system if necessary".
Read 15 tweets

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