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Daniel Dale @ddale8
, 16 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
The leaders of Canada, the U.S. and Mexico will sign their revised NAFTA agreement (USMCA in American law, CUSMA in Canadian law) in a few minutes. The original NAFTA will remain in place until their legislatures ratify the new one; approval in the U.S. Congress is no certainty.
It's more than a photo op, though it isn't the end of the process. The leaders have to sign the agreement before their legislatures take it up. So it's a step in the process, just not the end.
NAFTA remains in place. The only other possibility is that Trump gets angry with Congress and withdraws the U.S. from NAFTA to pressure Congress into ratifying the new deal, basically saying "take the new one or take nothing." But that's a long way away.
Trump is speaking first. He says, "We're gathered together this afternoon..." It is 9:30 in the morning.
Trump says he has become great friends with Trudeau. “Battles sometimes make great friendships," he says.
Trump reads from his text: “All of our countries will benefit greatly."

Trump ad-libs a lie: "It is probably the largest trade deal ever made, also.” It is way smaller than the TPP, which included these three countries and nine others.
Trump says the agreement will promote "high wages and higher wages" in the auto industry, help stop auto jobs from going overseas, and bring back auto jobs that have gone overseas.
Trump: "In short, this is a model agreement that changes the trade landscape forever. And this is an agreement that first and foremost benefits working people."
Trump addressing EPN and Trudeau: “We’ve taken a lot of barbs and a little abuse, and we got there. It’s great for all of our countries.”
Trump on congressional ratification: "It's been so well-reviewed, I don't expect to have very much of a problem." That is...optimistic. Both Republicans and Democrats have expressed unhappiness with various provisions.
Telling: Trump began by hailing the new agreement's provisions, Trudeau by hailing the preservation of North American free trade. Trudeau says he's here because their deal "maintains stability for Canada's entire economy" and ends the negotiation uncertainty.
Trudeau: "The new agreement lifts the risk of serious economic uncertainty that lingers throughout a trade renegotiation process, uncertainty that would have only gotten worse and more damaging had we not reached a new NAFTA."
Trudeau brings up the GM cuts, a "heavy blow," then directly addresses Trump in urging him to remove his steel and aluminum tariffs: "And Donald, it's all the more reason why we need to keep working to remove the tariffs on steel and aluminum between our countries."
Canada's U.S. ambassador had suggested Trudeau might not attend this ceremony if Trump hadn't removed the tariffs by this time. He's here, though the tariffs are too.
Yeah - Trump (wrongly) describes this as a brand new deal that "terminates" NAFTA, Trudeau more accurately as a revision to NAFTA. They each have a political interest in describing it the way they do. Canadians like NAFTA, Americans much more mixed.
Signed! (But not sealed or delivered.)
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